Current restrictions may ‘not be sufficient’ to curb spread of Covid-19, warns Nphet

The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has expressed concern the current Covid-19 restrictions announced on Wednesday will not be enough to curtail the spread of the virus.

In a letter written to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on New Year's Eve, chief medical officer Dr Holohan wrote: "Nphet reiterates its view that the current set of measures will not be sufficient to interrupt transmission patterns to the extent necessary."

Nphet is recommending that Level 5 restrictions be imposed for a period of six weeks. “Nphet advises that this will require, at a minimum, the implementation of and adherence to the full suite of Level 5 measures as set out in the Government’s Plan for Living with COVID-19. The Nphet recommends that these measures are put in place as a matter of urgency and remain in place for a period of six weeks.”

“The level of disease has now exceeded containment and, as such, we are now in a mitigation phase.”

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This warning came on the same day that Dr Tony Holohan told a media briefing that close contacts of confirmed Covid-19 cases will no longer be tested.

Also reported on Thursday, the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in recent days is under-reported by an estimated 4,000, due to delays in recording positive test results on the system over the Christmas period, a senior health official said.

Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said the epidemiological situation has deteriorated rapidly over the past week, and that we are “clearly in the midst of the third wave”.

A further 1,620 cases of coronavirus and 12 more deaths were reported by Nphet on Thursday. There have now been 91,772 cases of coronavirus reported in the Republic since the start of the pandemic last March, and 2,237 deaths.

‘Stay at home’ measures

The letter goes on to say that Nphet “is of the view that the virus is circulating in the community at such a level that it requires strict ‘stay at home’ measures (with exemptions provided only for those activities and services that are essential in nature) to significantly and comprehensively reduce opportunities for contact and further transmission of the disease.”

Nphet believes due to “some element of under-reporting as a result of the festive period, and coupled with the potential additional risks posed by the UK and South African variants” that there “could be a further acceleration in incidence and severity indicators in the coming days”.

Nphet has subsequently warned “that the additional Level 5 measures recommended may not be sufficient to bring the disease under control and that additional measures may be required if there is a continued deterioration over the coming period.”

‘Extremely fragile’ situation

The letter also states that the best estimate of the reproduction number (R) is currently 1.6-1.8. This number is now estimated to be higher than at any point since last March. One of the latest modelling projections predicts that if the R number is reduced to 1.4 from December 31st, at least 2,000 cases per day on average will be seen by January 9th and 3,000 cases per day by January 23rd.

Nphet stressed that the situation “remains extremely fragile, with disease incidence and hospitalisations accelerating faster than the most pessimistic modelling scenarios had projected.”

In relation to the reopening of schools, Dr Holohan said in the letter: “The Nphet today gave specific consideration to the reopening of schools next week. The Nphet was of the view that schools should reopen as planned. However, the Nphet did note that the high and rising levels of community transmission will become a risk to the ongoing provision of education at primary and secondary level unless these levels of transmission can be addressed. Nphet will continue to review this issue over the coming weeks.”