Almost 60,000 houses needed in Dublin by 2021

ESRI report says no new builds needed in 15 rural counties

The capital is facing significant housing shortages if the rate of construction is not increased rapidly, the ESRI report noted. Photograph: Frank Miller

The capital is facing significant housing shortages if the rate of construction is not increased rapidly, the ESRI report noted. Photograph: Frank Miller

 

Almost 60,000 houses need to be built in Dublin by 2021 to meet population demands, according to fresh research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

However, most of the country, outside the greater Dublin area and regional cities, requires no additional housing to be built and is expected to have an oversupply of vacant property by the end of the decade.

The capital is facing “significant housing shortages” if the rate of construction is not “increased rapidly” the ESRI report noted.

From 2011 to 2021 an additional 180,000 households across the State will need somewhere to live.

The current oversupply of houses in vacant or “ghost estates” will be able to accommodate about half that number, leaving a need for 90,000 houses or apartments to be built between 2011 and 2021, or an average of 12,500 each year.

However, the housing requirement is not distributed evenly across the State and is largely concentrated in Dublin and its surrounding counties.

Capital’s requirement The analysis by Dr Edgar Morgenroth, associate research professor with the ESRI, found that more than 60 per cent of the total properties needed were in Dublin, or almost 8,000 units, with a further 26 per cent accounted for by demand in Louth, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow.

But only 1,360 houses and apartments were built in Dublin last year, and just one-third of all housing units built between 2011 and 2013 were in the greater Dublin area.

“Given that the total number of housing completions recorded in the Greater Dublin Area during the 2011-2013 period is below what is needed to meet demand, this will result in significant housing shortages in the Greater Dublin Area if the rate of housing completions does not increase rapidly,” noted Dr Morgenroth .

The research was undertaken in response to a lack of analysis of the housing market at a “sub-national” or county by county level.

Demand static It shows that for many counties the level of vacant stock and the projected population change is such that no additions to the housing stock are necessary to meet demand for the period up to 2021.

Of the 26 counties 15 fall into this category and of those all but two, Offaly and Waterford, are expected to still have an oversupply of vacant properties by 2021. Empty units in 2021 will be most prevalent in Donegal, Kerry, Roscommon and Mayo, according to the analysis.