Dutch Labour party in strong position as voters head to the polls

NETHERLANDS: Harm Fokke, a 37- year-old Dutch dairy farmer, had been feeling depressed for some time before he heard last week…

NETHERLANDS: Harm Fokke, a 37- year-old Dutch dairy farmer, had been feeling depressed for some time before he heard last week that he had won €6 million in the lottery. The good news was the final straw and Mr Fokke ended up in hospital after he was found lying on the floor of a slurry pit.

When asked what he would do with his new wealth, Mr Fokke replied: "Well, first I'm going to get a new pair of clogs."

As the Netherlands goes to the polls tomorrow for the second time in less than a year, the voters' gloom appears to be almost as unmovable as that of the unfortunate Mr Fokke. Rising crime, long hospital waiting lists and overcrowded schools have turned the traditionally level-headed Dutch into one of the most volatile electorates in Europe.

Dutch politics has been in turmoil since the assassination last May of Pim Fortuyn, an eccentric populist who campaigned against immigration and in favour of cutting bureaucracy. Mr Fortuyn's murder came a few days before an election that saw his Lijst Pim Fortuyn (LPF) party emerge with 26 seats as the second largest party in parliament.

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The Labour Party of former prime minister, Mr Wim Kok, lost half its seats and the Christian Democrat leader, Mr Jan-Peter Balkenende, invited the leaderless LPF to help him form a new government. The right-wing coalition collapsed after only 87 days amid bitter infighting within the LPF.

The baby-faced Mr Balkenende entered the election campaign confident of victory and until last week, he looked certain to lead the next government.

But labour has staged a dramatic recovery, chiefly on account of its charismatic new leader, Mr Wouter Bos and is now running neck-and-neck with the Christian Democrats.

A former Shell executive, the 39-year-old Mr Bos is fluent, photogenic and hugely popular among voters. He is also a master of the "sorry culture" that has become so prevalent among politicians throughout the world. Indeed, Mr Bos has at times appeared to be campaigning as much against his own party's record in government as against that of Mr Balkenende's brief spell in power.

The Labour leader has also stolen some of the late Mr Fortuyn's political clothes, talking tough on immigration and crime and promising to solve the crisis in Holland's hospitals and schools. Indeed, his first move after becoming leader was to reclaim Mr Fortuyn's home city of Rotterdam for the Labour party, visiting the city regularly and talking directly to voters about their concerns.

The final opinion polls suggest that Labour could emerge as the biggest party after the election, followed closely by the Christian Democrats. The LPF are expected to lose all but six of their seats.

Mr Bos has made clear that he will not become prime minister if his party wins the election but will remain his party's parliamentary leader. Labour's candidate for prime minister is Amsterdam's mayor, Mr Job Cohen, but Mr Bos will undoubtedly remain a powerful force within his party.

Most commentators now predict that Holland's next government will be a grand coalition of Labour and the Christian Democrats, representing a return to the consensus politics that the Netherlands enjoyed for 20 years before Mr Fortuyn's rise.

The new government will not find it easy, however, to restore public confidence in the state's ability to protect citizens from crime and to provide adequate public services.

Some of Holland's recent problems have been due to deep cuts in public spending which have been necessary to keep the national budget close to balance.

But some Dutch psychologists believe the national malaise owes more to the inner conflict many in the Netherlands feel between a desire for almost unlimited freedom and a need for security.

Mr Hans Boutellier, a social psychologist and an official in the Dutch Ministry of Justice, believes that many voters want the combination of freedom and security enjoyed by the bungee jumper.

"For me, that symbolises the safety utopia: the hope that freedom and safety can coincide. You take your jump, but you hope you'll be protected by the elastic attached to your feet," he said.

Mr Paul Lucardi, a political scientist at Groningen University, suggests that the volatility that Mr Fortuyn introduced into Dutch politics may not have disappeared and that the LPF should not be written off in the long term.

"Opinion polls suggest they will still have four to six seats, which is enough for them to stay in parliament and become an active opposition party, and if they do that well, I think there's still some ideological potential for them.

"So, if they can find a strong opposition leader who keeps hammering on immigration and other issues that Pim Fortuyn articulated, they might even stage a comeback," he said.