ANALYSIS:Normal politics is bedding down in Northern Ireland. That's a major plus for a place so used to abnormal politics, writes GERRY MORIARTY
SUCH A night and morning of high drama, political shock and contrasting personal elation and devastation. But on the broad political canvass one Yeatsian point must be made: the centre held. In fact it did better, it strengthened.
Winners and losers are the stuff of great human interest raising politics above what is often dull and repetitious. But an important statistical point must be made first: this was an immense endorsement of the peace process, of the political process, of powersharing, of transferring serious powers to Stormont.
A total of 673,871 people voted in Northern Ireland in the Westminster election. Of these it can be said that some 646,000 supported a new Northern Ireland.
The Traditional Unionist Voice, which opposes sharing power with Sinn Féin, polled just 26,300 votes, while a couple of other anti-powersharing unionists took just over 1,200 votes. This contrasted with last year’s European elections when TUV leader Jim Allister took over 66,000 votes, almost 14 per cent of the vote.
But the anti-agreement turnout in this Westminster vote was just over 4 per cent. Those who are accepting of the new dispensation made up the rest – a genuinely amazing 96 per cent. If that anti-deal vote is replicated in such fashion in next year’s Assembly election then the only certain TUV seat would be Allister’s in North Antrim.
It was as if Northern Ireland turned a corner. In terms of the big issues people knew clearly what they were voting for. Allister himself in the course of the election campaign acknowledged that the election, as well as returning 18 MPs to Westminster, was a poll on devolution, on unionists being in government with Sinn Féin ministers.
Previous recent elections always saw great tensions, major rows and some degree of “creative ambiguity” over the constitutional issues. But in this battle, despite the best efforts of the “no-terrorists-in-government” TUV, these matters did not really figure. In addition to supporting the status quo it was an election about bread-and-butter issues, about the economy, jobs, about education, health and everything else that affects normal Northern Ireland households, including how to tackle sectarianism.
And the reason that it was such a “war”-free election is Peter Robinson, which is something of an irony considering the historic first of Alliance deputy leader Naomi Long in sensationally taking the First Minister’s seat in East Belfast. From the off, the DUP leadership instruction was to argue trenchantly that devolution was good for Northern Ireland, that the alternative was between the dissidents and retreating to the unionist past, as represented by the TUV.
There was no discernible deviation from that positive message. Robinson’s deputy Nigel Dodds, viewed as a devolution sceptic, stuck to it as firmly as his leader. And it worked. The DUP returned eight of its nine seats.
It lost East Belfast, but that wasn’t because of powersharing, it was because of the travails of Peter and Iris Robinson, of local hostility to the perception of them riding the political gravy train, and because he faced a very strong candidate in Naomi Long – a hard-working candidate who will bring fresh ideas and vision to politics here and in Westminster.
That result could cost Robinson his leadership of the DUP and perhaps his post as First Minister. The DUP will take stock and so will Robinson.
It was also a bad election for TUV leader Jim Allister, and for Ulster Unionist Party leader Sir Reg Empey. His gamble of hooking up with the Tories through the ill-fated, ill-titled Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force, and of running in South Antrim, failed. Losing unionism’s most popular figure, Sylvia Hermon, just added to his woes. An honourable man may be very quickly for the chop.
Curiously, this could yet set in train a process that Robinson publicly and privately said he wanted to unfold: the realignment of unionism. The speculation is that Dodds might take over the leadership of the DUP and that Arlene Foster, who briefly deputised for Robinson in the role earlier this year, might become First Minister. A former Ulster Unionist, she could be a uniting force between the DUP and the UUP.
There will be solid practical reasons for such a coming together. Come next May’s Assembly elections, Sinn Féin could be in line to take the First Minister position if it is facing two main unionist parties. Sinn Féin polled almost 4,000 votes more than the DUP in this election. The thought of Martin McGuinness as First Minister must concentrate unionist minds.
Gerry Adams and Sinn Féin will be both delighted and relieved that after the counting and counting and counting was finished it held its five seats – Michelle Gildernew’s in Fermanagh-South Tyrone by just four votes.
The SDLP will also be satisfied and relieved that it regained its three seats, a result that will help consolidate the position of new SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie, who won easily in South Down.
Normal politics is bedding down in Northern Ireland. That’s a major plus for a place so used to abnormal politics. In the meantime the North’s 18 MPs – five of them abstentionist, it must be stressed – wait and wonder could they have a role in deciding who forms the next British government.