MR Tony Blair will tell Sinn Fein next week that its "moment of truth" has arrived. No 10 Downing Street has confirmed that the British Prime Minister will make his eagerly-awaited statement on Northern Ireland, almost certainly in the Commons, on Wednesday.
Mr Blair is expected to tell the republican movement that he can do nothing more to secure its entry into political talks. He will reaffirm his determination to seek a political settlement for the North by next May, with or without Sinn Fein.
Crucially, Mr Blair will not exclude the possibility of a new ceasefire. However, he will warn that republican words and actions in that event would be subject to the closest scrutiny.
He is likely to give his strongest signal yet that London is prepared to push ahead with the search for agreement between the two governments and the "constitutional" parties in the North.
Mr Blair will today seek to enlist the support of President Bill Clinton for his tough stance as he explains why he described Monday's murder of two RUC officers in Lurgan as a "doubly cynical act".
During a full bilateral session on the margins of the G7 summit in Denver, Colorado, devoted to Northern Ireland, Mr Blair will in-form President Clinton of the steps his government has taken since May 2nd to create a fully "inclusive" talks process.
And his statement next Wednesday is expected to be accompanied by publication of the minutes of the "clarificatory" talks held between his officials and Sinn Fein, and the paper sent to Sinn Fein on June 13th confirming the British government's proposed six-week timetable for the party's entry to the talks process following a restoration of the IRA ceasefire.
The Irish Times understands Sinn Fein was told that the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, would expect to exercise her statutory judgment on Sinn Fein's entry to talks six weeks after a ceasefire which she deemed satisfactory.
Given the timetable for the talks process, that raised the prospect of Sinn Fein being invited to a plenary session at Stormont before the end of next month. At that point, the party would he formally invited to sign up to the Mitchell principles of democracy and non-violence.
While unable to confirm an agreement with the Ulster Unionist Party, the government's paper to Sinn Fein repeated Dr Mowlam's insistence that the decommissioning" roadblock would be removed and would not block the beginning of "substantive" political negotiations in September.
The paper restated Dr Mowlam's pledges on a series of "confidence-building measures" involving human rights legislation, RUC reforms, parades legislation and anti-discrimination measures, and confirmed Dr Mowlam's earlier indication to the Commons that the government intended the process of negotiation itself to be concluded by next May.
Mr Blair angrily condemned last Monday's murders as "a doubly cynical act" because, he said, the perpetrators knew the risks that were being taken to secure an "inclusive" process and a comprehensive political settlement.
And it does appear that Mr Blair has taken a sizeable gamble on his relationship with the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, going as close as he deemed possible to meet republican demands for a fixed point for Sinn Fein's entry into talks; the assurance that decommissioning would not act as a brake on negotiations; and a time-frame for the negotiation process itself.
It is not clear if Mr Blair and Dr Mowlam see the Lurgan killings as a definitive IRA response to last Friday's explanation of government policy. However, Mr Blair is thought likely on Wednesday to dismiss any suggestion that the killings were perpetrated by republican dissidents, and to repudiate what ministers regard as a continuation of the republican movement's twin-track strategy.
Speaking at JFK Airport in New York yesterday on his way to the G7 summit, Mr Blair said: "I really believe a moment of decision is coming for Sinn Fein and the IRA as to whether they want to be any part of a forward process that is going to lead to a lasting settlement for peace."
Last night the chairman of the Northern Ireland talks, Mr George Mitchell, said the peace process had reached a "time of decision". The key, he said, was compromise without surrendering conviction.
The Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, said yesterday the British government had been in constant touch with him since the general election.