Already clear that Callely's career is over

ANALYSIS:TWO SEPARATE inquiries were launched yesterday into new allegations surrounding expenses claims made by Ivor Callely – one by the Seanad committee that has already suspended him for 20 days, and the second by Fianna Fáil, which has already removed the whip from him and suspended him temporarily from the party.

The committees met to agree their own procedures and to determine the respective scopes of their inquiries. Both will observe all the protocols, will separately invite Callely to respond to the allegations in person, and will make speedy determinations and recommendations (probably early next month). But it is already abundantly clear that unless Ivor Callely has a loaf-and-five-fishes excuse to explain the miracle of four invoices from a defunct company, the outcomes of both will only confirm what is already known by everybody, with the possible exception of the Clontarf senator: his political career is over.

Without actually saying it, Taoiseach Brian Cowen signalled as much when speaking in Tullamore on Sunday. Cowen’s cautious nature sometimes makes it hard to read anything at all into the bland comments he tends to make at “doorstep” interviews. But the Taoiseach’s very direct use of language on Sunday when he said that Callely’s statement gave rise to more questions than answers left nobody in any doubt of where he stood on the issue. It’s clear he wants him out of Fianna Fáil as soon as possible, and also wants him to leave the Oireachtas.

To underline the sentiment, Minister for Agriculture Brendan Smith, always loyally on message, was uncharacteristically strident yesterday when saying that Cowen “wanted the questions cleared up as soon as possible”.

The only question is, will Callely be prepared to accept the inevitable sooner rather than later? Nothing from past controversies involving him suggests he is prepared to walk the political plank. Indeed, the pattern of events this week were uncannily similar to what happened in late 2005 when it first emerged that a Dublin construction company had provided painters to help decorate his home. Callely went incommunicado for a few days, during which time increasingly frustrated party officials were unable to reach him. He then appeared out of nowhere to give a long – and at times rambling – account of his actions to Pat Kenny on RTÉ. He alleged that there was a witch-hunt or conspiracy against him. He also refused to accept publicly that he was no longer a junior minister.

That type of response has also been evident in the recent controversies. Callely has gone to ground, refused to engage with party officials, and then appeared to give unsatisfactory explanations. His statement on the mobile phone issue is illustrative. He seems to acknowledge it was wrong to submit the four receipts from a company that no longer existed. He also said he returned the €3,000 to the Oireachtas last week. He then made the extraordinary claim that his claims were submitted in “good faith”. Ominously for the Senator, something does not add up there.

If he does decide to tough it out, events will pan out in a predictable fashion. It is certain that the Senator will be expelled from Fianna Fáil with no prospect of being readmitted. He will likely face another (longer) period of suspension from the Seanad.

If he stands for re-election, his chances of regaining his seat are negligible. Given the serious nature of the allegation, there is also the possibility of a Garda investigation down the line.

Paradoxically, for Fianna Fáil it is unlikely that Callely’s cavalier approach to expenses will harm the party. This is partly because Fianna Fáil moved so quickly to distance itself from him, removing the whip from him last month and then suspending him completely.

The party has been quick to point out that Callely was appointed to the Seanad in 2007 by Bertie Ahern. The subliminal message? Cowen doesn’t approve and hasn’t approved of him, and wants as little to do with him as possible. Nor have Callely’s latest difficulties evoked any sympathy from colleagues in Fianna Fáil. Most say they are appalled by his behaviour, and see him as the author of his own misfortune.