JOHN BEGGS, chief economist with AIB Global Treasury, raised a hare at last weekend's annual conference of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers (IPAV)in Killarney when he attempted to put a realistic figure on the size of the fall in house prices over the past two years.
He dismissed a recent report from the ESRI/Permanent TSBwhich found that house prices nationally had fallen by 18.5 per cent between February 2007 and March last. Beggs' estimate of the fall was 35 to 40 per cent.
He said that, even though prices had plunged and interest rates were lower, there was still “low demand” and, worse, many of the 50,000 homes remaining unsold, including those in remote villages, may never change hands.
Beggs said that bank economists tend to be more optimistic than media economists and went on to assure his listeners that property would bounce back, though not in the short term. He estimated that only 15,000 homes would be built in 2010. Real demand would be for 40,000 a year and anything above that would lead to a property bubble, he said.
Fine Gael had a strong representation at the weekend event in Killarney with even party leader Enda Kennymingling with the auctioneers on Friday night. He just happened to be staying in the Malton Hotel (formerly the Great Southern) where the conference was held. FG's front bench spokesman and former auctioneer, Phil Hogan, was also a guest speaker while local FG senator and auctioneer Paul Coghlan was a delegate. So, too, was Eleanor O'Connor Scarteen, the Kenmare auctioneer and mother of young FG councillor Patrick O'Connor Scarteen.
The keynote address at the dinner on Saturday night was given by Ceann Comhairle John O'Donoghue, whose late mother, Mary, was also an auctioneer, as well as a publican, hackney driver and county councillor. O'Donoghue said that there were opportunities even in bad times and, quoting White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, said: "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste, it's an opportunity to do things that you thought you could not do before."
