Who will replace Kevin McCarthy as US House speaker?

The clock is ticking for Republicans on Capitol Hill to elect a new leader, after the dramatic removal of Kevin McCarthy this week left the House of Representatives without a speaker and brought the dysfunction in Washington to a new level.

The historic vote laid bare long-simmering tensions within the Republican Party, and raised questions about who will lead the party going forward at a time of deep division over issues such as how to fund the federal government and whether to underwrite more US aid to Ukraine.

It also underscored the nearly impossible task of governing, given Republicans control the House by a razor-thin margin.

Any new speaker will need a simple majority of the 435-member House, or at least 218 votes, to be elected. That will be a tall order, given the unprecedented rancour among congressional Republicans.

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Further, any replacement will need to win over at least a handful of the eight Republican rebels who voted against McCarthy, as Democrats will almost certainly refuse to back a Republican.

The timeline for a speaker election is unclear. Patrick McHenry, the interim leader, or speaker pro tempore, of the House called the chamber into recess late on Tuesday after McCarthy’s removal, and members have been advised that no votes are expected until at least next week.

Two candidates – Jim Jordan of Ohio and Steve Scalise of Louisiana – have declared they are running, while others consider jumping into the race, including Kevin Hern of Oklahoma.

Some hardline Republican House members, notably Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, have made the far-fetched suggestion that Donald Trump, the former president, throw his hat in the ring. The US Constitution does not specify that the speaker must be an elected member of Congress – although every speaker has been one.

Speaking to reporters at a New York courthouse on Wednesday, where he is facing a civil fraud trial, Trump deflected questions about whether he would run – although he did not rule it out.

“A lot of people have been calling me about dpeaker. All I can say is: we will do whatever is best for the country, and for the Republican Party,” said Trump, the undisputed front-runner in a crowded field of Republicans vying for the party’s presidential nomination in 2024. He added that his focus was “totally” on running for president.

“If I can help them during the process, I would do it. But we have some great people in the Republican Party that could do a great job as speaker.”

Who will be Speaker of the House?

Jim Jordan

The fast-talking Republican (59) congressman from Ohio chairs the powerful House judiciary committee and has pushed for the impeachment inquiry into president Joe Biden over his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings. A former college wrestling coach, Jordan has long been a vocal ally of Donald Trump. As a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, Jordan is popular with the party’s right wing.

Steve Scalise

The nine-term Republican congressman from Louisiana has risen steadily through party leadership during his time in Congress. The House majority leader (57), is now pitching himself as the natural successor to McCarthy. Scalise became a household name in 2017, after he was shot and seriously injured by a left-wing activist at a congressional baseball game. He made a full recovery but is now battling blood cancer.

Kevin Hern

The Republican congressman from Oklahoma owned more than a dozen McDonald’s franchises and started several other small and medium-sized businesses before being elected to Congress in 2018. Hern (61), chairs the influential Republican Study Committee, a conservative faction of House members who have long pushed for budget cuts. While Hern has not officially said he is running for Speaker, he told reporters on Wednesday he was considering it.

Patrick McHenry

The 47-year-old Republican congressman from North Carolina was among Kevin McCarthy’s closest allies during his time as speaker. McCarthy designated McHenry, who chairs the House financial services committee, as speaker pro tempore, meaning he will oversee the election of a new speaker. McHenry has not said he wants the top job on a permanent basis, but several members have suggested they would support him if he entered the race.

Tom Emmer

Matt Gaetz floated Emmer, the 62-year-old Republican congressman from Minnesota, as a possible successor to McCarthy even before the speaker was ousted. But Emmer, who is the House majority whip and before that spent four years as the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House Republicans’ campaign arm, has indicated he will not run for speaker and will instead try to be House majority leader.

Donald Trump

The former president (77), is already running for another four years in the White House and contending with a mountain of legal challenges. But that has not stopped several rightwing House members from suggesting he should also run for speaker – a long-shot idea that would push the boundaries of congressional norms. While the US Constitution makes few stipulations on who can be speaker, all former speakers have been sitting members of Congress.

– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023