Main Points
- The Israeli military said it had launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran, shortly after president Donald Trump signalled a pause in US attacks against energy infrastructure after what he said were “productive” talks with Iran
- Trump earlier said there had been discussions about a “complete and total resolution” to the conflict in the Middle East
- Iranian officials claimed Trump backed down after being warned that Iran would target power plants across the Gulf and in Israel
- Iran’s foreign ministry denied the talks with US
- Here, the Government is set to cut the price of diesel and petrol from midnight on Tuesday, Political Correspondent Harry McGee reports
Key Reads
- Double fuel allowance, excise duty cut and a haulier rebate to ease energy costs
- Michael Jansen: Consequences of war in Iran set to be long-lasting
- How will Gulf states react to Trump’s latest statement?
That’s all for today’s live coverage. Follow along for more elsewhere on the site and app and we’ll be back with live developments on Tuesday morning.
Price of diesel and petrol set to fall with cut to excise duty
The Government is set to cut the price of diesel and petrol from 12am on Wednesday, Political Correspondent Harry McGee reports.
Minister for Finance Simon Harris will bring forward proposals at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting to cut excise duty on diesel by 20 cent and by 15 cent on petrol until the end of May.
These excise measures will take effect from 12am on Wednesday, subject to a financial resolution being passed in the Dáil.
Additionally, expected changes to the National Oil Reserve Agency levy will mean an effective cut in Government levies of an extra 2 cent each on diesel and petrol. The timing of the changes to the levy have not yet been announced.
The changes were agreed at a meeting of Coalition party leaders on Monday night, attended by Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Harris, and Seán Canney, representing Independent TDs in Government.
There will also be a diesel rebate scheme for hauliers and bus operators which will be backdated to January and keep supply chains functioning.
The measures will be temporary but will be reviewed.
It is also understood that the fuel allowance, currently worth €38 per week, will be doubled to €76 per week for the 470,000 people in receipt of the allowance. The season was due to end on March 31st but is now being extended into April.
Read more here.
The US embassy in Muscat, Oman, has lifted its guidance to shelter in place.
Israel strikes Beirut’s southern suburbs
An Israeli strike hit Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday, state media reported, hours after the Israeli army issued a warning for residents of the area to evacuate.
An AFPTV live broadcast showed a cloud of smoke over the southern suburbs, which are considered a Hizbullah stronghold and have not been hit since Friday night. – The Guardian
Bahrain proposes UN Security Council approve use of force to protect Hormuz shipping
Bahrain has put forward a draft United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorise countries to use “all necessary means” to protect commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, according to a text seen by Reuters on Monday.
Diplomats said the draft text was backed by other Gulf Arab states and the United States, although they said it was unlikely to succeed.
The move underscores mounting concern in the region that Iran could continue to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that carries about a fifth of global oil supplies and underpins Gulf economies.
Closing the Strait has been one of Iran’s main objectives. Shipping through the waterway has ground to a near-halt after Iran hit vessels in its conflict with the US and Israel.
The draft resolution calls Iran’s actions a threat to international peace and security.
The text would authorise countries, acting alone or through voluntary multinational naval coalitions, to use “all necessary means” in and around the Strait of Hormuz – including in the territorial waters of littoral states – to ensure passage and to prevent moves that block or interfere with international navigation.
The resolution also expresses the readiness to impose measures, including targeted sanctions.
The draft text “demands that the Islamic Republic of Iran immediately cease all attacks against merchant and commercial vessels and any attempt to impede lawful transit passage or freedom of navigation in and around the Strait of Hormuz.”
Two European and one western diplomat said there was little prospect of such a resolution being adopted by the Security Council as Iran’s allies Russia and China were likely to veto the text if needed.
A resolution needs at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by Russia, China, the US, Britain and France to be adopted by the 15-member body. – Reuters
Some photos are coming in following air strikes in Tehran on Monday
Israeli military claims to have struck Iranian IRGC security headquarters
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has said it has struck the main security headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as part of a “wave of strikes that was completed a short while ago in the heart of Tehran”.
“The headquarter was used by the IRGC to synchronise unit activities and to conduct situational assessments. It was also responsible for directing the Basij Battalions,” the IDF claimed in a statement.
“Prior to the strike, steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence.” – The Guardian
Pakistan moves into position as mediator in US-Israeli war on Iran
Pakistan is positioning itself as the lead mediator trying to broker an end to the US’s and Israel’s war against Iran, using its military strongman’s ties to Tehran and warm relationship with Donald Trump.
Two officials familiar with the discussions said Pakistan has pitched Islamabad as a venue for talks in the coming days involving senior figures from the Trump administration and Iran.
Army chief Asim Munir spoke to Trump on Sunday, according to two people briefed on the call, while Pakistani prime minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday.
Read more here.
Any deal with Iran will ‘preserve our vital interests’ – Netanyahu
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Monday that he spoke with US president Donald Trump, who saw a chance of reaching a deal with Iran.
Trump believed there was a possibility of “leveraging the mighty achievements obtained by the IDF [Israel Defence Forces] and the US military, in order to realise the goals of the war in a deal – a deal that will preserve our vital interests,” Netanyahu said in a video statement released by his office. – Reuters
The United States on Monday advised its citizens in Oman to shelter in place “due to ongoing activity”, according to a security alert from the US embassy in Muscat.
Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting that air defences have shot down an explosive drone over the US consulate in Iraq’s Erbil.
Rockets launched from Iraq’s Mosul towards US base in Syria, say sources
At least seven rockets were launched from the Iraqi town of Rabi’a towards a US military base in northeastern Syria on Monday, according to two Iraqi security sources.
No further details were provided for the incident.
A rocket launch platform was found in the Rabi’a district, west of Mosul, and a burnt vehicle used to fire seven rockets towards the Syrian side was seized, two security sources said. – Reuters
Israel launches new strikes on Tehran
The Israeli military said it had launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran, after Donald Trump signalled a pause in US attacks against energy infrastructure after what he said were talks with Iran.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it would continue operations in line with Israeli government directives until told otherwise.
About 40 minutes after Trump said he had extended by five days his deadline to strike Iran’s power plants, describing talks with Tehran as “productive”, the IDF said on X it ‘‘has just begun another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran”.
The IDF told the Guardian energy infrastructure would be spared, suggesting Israel may follow Washington in suspending any targeting of Iranian power plants and related sites.
An IDF official told the Times of Israel that the military could not comment on the US president’s announcement of negotiations with Iran, saying it was a “political echelon matter”, and stating it was ‘‘operating in accordance with the directives of Israel’s political leadership and will continue to strike in Iran according to its plans until instructed otherwise”.
Al Jazeera Arabic’s correspondent in Tehran reported that the size and volume of the explosions in the Iranian capital were “unprecedented”.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Monday said they launched a new attack on targets in Israel. – The Guardian
US vice president JD Vance discussed efforts to open negotiations with Iran during a phone call on Monday with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Axios reported, citing a source familiar with the call.
The source said the pair also discussed the components of a possible agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran, Axios reported. – Reuters
‘They mean business’: Trump hails ‘very good discussions’ with Iran
US president Donald Trump has hailed “very good discussions” with Iran, saying: “This time, they mean business.”
“It’s only because of the great job that our military did is the reason they mean business. They want to settle and we’re going to get it done, I hope. So hopefully this will be possible, but no matter what, we’ll ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Speaking at an event in Memphis on Monday, Trump said: “We are now having really good discussions. They started last night, a little bit the night before that.”
“We were planning tomorrow on shooting down some of their power plants, and we’re not going to, we’re going to hold that up. Hopefully we won’t have to do it, and hopefully we can make a deal that’s good for all of us,” he said.
Trump said the US military and its partners have been “decimating Iran’s military capabilities with overwhelming firepower, skill, lethality and force”.
“We eliminated everything there is to eliminate, and we eliminated them.”
“I think there’s a very good chance we’re going to end up in a deal and we’re giving it five days, and then we’re going to see where that takes us.”
Iran’s ambassador to UK summoned by British foreign office
Iran’s ambassador to the UK has been summoned by the British foreign office over his country’s “reckless and destabilising actions” in Britain and overseas.
Seyed Ali Mousavi was called in after an Iranian and a British-Iranian dual national were accused of carrying out hostile surveillance on London’s Jewish community.
The foreign office said the UK takes the threat posed by Iran and its proxies “extremely seriously”.
A spokesman said: “The summons follows the recent charging of two individuals, one Iranian national and one British-Iranian dual national, under the National Security Act, on suspicion of providing assistance to a foreign intelligence service.
“National security remains our top priority, and we take threats posed by Iran and those who do its bidding extremely seriously.
“This government will take all measures necessary to protect the British people, including exposing Iran’s reckless and destabilising actions at home and abroad.”
Nematollah Shahsavani (40) and Alireza Farasati (22) are accused of engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service between July 9th and August 15th last year. – PA
Ukraine has ‘irrefutable evidence’ Russia providing intelligence to Iran – Zelenskiy
Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable evidence” that Russia continues to provide intelligence to Iran, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday after meeting the head of military intelligence.
“Russia is using its own signals intelligence and electronic intelligence capabilities, as well as part of the data obtained through co-operation with partners in the Middle East,” he said on X.
The Kremlin last week dismissed a Wall Street Journal report that Russia was sharing satellite imagery and improved drone technology with Iran as “fake news”.
Tánaiste welcomes pause in strikes
Tánaiste Simon Harris has welcomed the pause in US strikes, saying it is “in the interests of humanity and our global economy for this war to end”.
“I have consistently said that the most effective remedy to the concerning economic developments globally and their impact on families and businesses in Ireland would be a de-escalation and end to the conflict in the Gulf and Middle East region,” he said in a statement.
The Tánaiste said he hopes the pause announced by Trump “can be used wisely”.
“In Ireland, we will of course, prepare for a variety of economic scenarios and I am continuing that work with colleagues in Government and in the Department of Finance today,” he said.
The United States has requested a meeting with Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Saturday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, without mentioning any proposed venue.
The official, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter, said Iran’s Supreme National Security Council had yet to decide on any proposed talks and Iran had yet to respond. – Reuters
The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has denied that any negotiations have been held with the US, saying “fake news” is being used to “manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped”.
In a separate post on X, Ghalibaf said Iranian people demand “punishment of the aggressors”.
“All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved”.
How will Gulf states react to Trump’s latest statement?
US president Donald Trump’s decision to pause threatened strikes on Iran’s oil and gas sector while “very good and productive talks” continue has been received positively by Gulf states, whose energy infrastructure could have been caught in crossfire.
Gulf-based commentators have said the US-Iran talks should focus on the removal of energy facilities from warfare.
Before the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28th, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had focused on de-escalating tensions with Iran despite the regional rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar have sought to give the US time and opportunity to degrade Iran’s military and deplete its arsenals to ensure it is no longer a threat to Gulf security.
Read more from Michael Jansen here.
Iran’s foreign ministry denies talks with US, state news agency says
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson denied on Monday holding any talks with the US during the past 24 days, shortly after president Donald Trump said the two sides had found “major points of agreement” in the past few days.
In recent days, friendly countries sent messages indicating that the US had requested talks to end the war, but Iran had not responded, state news agency IRNA quoted the ministry spokesperson as saying. – Reuters
UK counter-terrorism police investigating arson attack
Counter-terrorism police are leading the investigation into an arson attack on four Jewish community ambulances in north London.
The incident in Golders Green is being treated as an anti-Semitic hate crime by the Metropolitan Police but not as terrorism at this stage, the force said.
Speaking near the scene on Monday, detective chief superintendent Luke Williams, who leads policing for the area, said investigators are aware of a group apparently claiming responsibility for the attack online, but have not yet verified whether this is true.
A video has allegedly been posted on Telegram by an Islamist group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, showing a map of the location where the ambulances were kept and footage of them on fire.
“While this has not been declared a terrorist incident at this stage, the investigation is now being led by Counter Terrorism Policing with all the specialist expertise they bring, and all lines of inquiry remain open.
“We are aware of an online claim from a group taking responsibility for this attack. Establishing the authenticity and accuracy of this claim will be a priority for the investigation team, but it is not something we can confirm at this point,” Williams said.
CCTV shows three people in hoods pouring accelerant on the vehicles, which belong to Jewish community ambulance service, Hatzola, before setting them on fire and running away.
British prime minister Keir Starmer has called for communities to “all stand together” in the face of the “horrific anti-Semitic attack”, while the UK’s Chief Rabbi, Ephraim Mirvis, said the targeting of the volunteer service was “particularly sickening”. – PA
Trump says he has been talking to ‘top person’ in Iran, denies it is supreme leader
Asked who he has been holding talks with in Iran, US president Donald Trump told reporters earlier that it is a “top person”.
Saying “we’ve wiped out everybody”, he added: “We’re dealing with the man who I believe is the most respected and the leader.”
Asked if it is the supreme leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, Trump said: “We have not heard from the son. Every once in a while, you’ll see a statement made but we don’t know if he’s living.”
Asked again who he has been speaking to in Iran, he said: “I can’t, because I don’t want him to be killed ... nobody wants that job right now. Nobody is exactly looking forward to being the head of that particular country but perhaps we’ll be able to solve that problem.”
EU welcome Trump announcement
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Monday welcomed US president Donald Trump’s announcement that there will be no attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
Kallas, who was meeting with Nigeria’s foreign minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar in Abuja, said that attacks on infrastructure were causing chaos in the region and escalating this war even further.
Trump said on Monday he had given orders to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants for five days. – Reuters
Trump hails ‘strong talks’ with Iran
President Donald Trump has given more information on his TruthSocial post this morning that the US administration was making good progress with Iran.
“We have had very strong talks with Iran. If they carry through with them, it will end the conflict. They want to make a deal, we want to make a deal,” he told reporters in Washington this morning.
His list of demands include “low key on the missiles, no nuclear weapons, even close to it. We want no enriched uranium, we want their enriched uranium.
“If this happens, it’s a great start for Iran to build itself back, and it’s everything that we want.
“And it’s also great for Israel, and it’s great for the other Middle Eastern countries – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, all of them.”
Taoiseach welcomes Trump’s announcement of a pause on Iranian attacks
Taoiseach Micheál Martin welcomed US president Donald Trump’s announcement that attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure will not proceed as planned.
He said: “It’s critical that the war ends in terms of the lives involved, and in terms of people living in Iran, people living in the Middle East, more generally. absolutely imperative that we get this war to end.”
He also said “we have a lot of work to do on the energy front, because a lot of damage has already now been done.”
He was speaking at a press conference at a housing development in Dublin in advance of a meeting of Coalition leaders this evening which will consider cost of living supports for households impacted by soaring energy prices.
Ukraine war continues as the world looks elsewhere
While the world is fixated on events in the Gulf, Ukraine has been hitting Russia hard over the past number of days.
The Russians began a spring offensive in eastern Donetsk last week to capture the fortress cities of Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka, and it is going badly, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukraine maintains that it killed between 1,500 and 1,700 Russian troops a day in the last week.
Ukrainian forces are heavily outnumbered along much of the front, and highly reliant on drones to break up Russian assaults, according to the ISW.
But ISW estimates that while Russia may make some tactical gains this year in Donetsk, it’s unlikely to seize the fortress belt. It describes Russian units in the area as exhausted, poorly trained and overstretched.
Russian forces have reduced basic training for personnel involved in ground assaults from one month to one week, probably because of heavy casualties, according to Maksym Bilousov, spokesman for a Ukrainian unit in the east.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is counter-attacking in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck one of Russia’s largest oil export terminals in the port of Primorsk on the Black Sea
Satellite imagery from Nasa’s Fire Information for Resource Management System shows blazes near both crude- and product-loading terminals. Shipping information received by Bloomberg shows a halt at both facilities.
Ukraine’s General Staff said in a separate Telegram statement that, according to preliminary information, Ukrainian drone strikes damaged not only storage facilities at Primorsk but also its oil-loading infrastructure.
Russia’s state-run crude-pipeline operator Transneft PJSC, which owns the Primorsk facilities, didn’t immediately respond to a request for a comment.
Primorsk is a vital cog in Russia’s oil industry, exporting well over one million barrels of crude oil and diesel every day.
The port has previously been targeted by Ukraine, including attacks last year that temporarily disrupted loadings.
The strike comes amid a broader wave of overnight drone attacks between the two countries.
Inflation heading towards 4 per cent despite Trump climbdown
Inflation is likely to rise from 2.7 per cent in February towards 3.5-4 per cent through March and April on foot of US president Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran that he would strike the country’s energy infrastructure, Bank of Ireland has warned.
Equity markets saw a fresh sell-off on Monday morning as investors reacted to the threat, which Trump had said the US would carry out should traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fail to resume.
Trump has since “postponed” the strikes for a five-day period following what he called “productive conversations” about a “complete and total resolution” to the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices plummeted, but the situation remains fluid.
Speaking before Trump’s postponement, Bank of Ireland chief economist Conall Mac Coille said Brent crude oil prices were likely to fall from $113 (€97.50) per barrel presently to $89 per barrel by the end of 2026.
However, he said the impact of higher petrol, diesel and home heating oil prices are still likely to push up consumer prices.
Government proposing ‘limited’ and time-sensitive energy help
The Government’s supports to help ease rising energy prices will be strictly limited and withdrawn as quickly as possible, Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers has said, hours before the Cabinet meets to discuss options.
Warning of the scale of the crisis, he said the Middle East conflict threatened “the biggest impact on the global economy for decades if it continues”, and had “huge ramifications for the growth trajectory of every economy in Europe and the world”.
A tax-rebate scheme for hauliers, a double fuel allowance payment and a reduction in excise duty to cut fuel prices at the pumps are all expected to be agreed by the Government on Monday.
Speaking in Tralee on the margins of the British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly, Chambers said the Government spent €10 billion in supporting households during Covid but hinted that a similar level of support was not possible now.
Read Mark Hennessy’s report here.
Markets rally but uncertainty remains
Euro zone government bonds rallied in a bumpy session on Monday after US president Donald Trump said he would order his military to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
Trump said he has had “good and productive conversations” with Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Tasnim news agency, citing an Iranian official, said that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to pre-war conditions and energy markets would remain unsettled, adding that no negotiations with the US were under way.
Bonds had been selling off for the fourth consecutive session earlier in the day, but then sharply reversed course following Trump’s comments.
Over the weekend, Trump had threatened to destroy Iranian power plants if Tehran failed to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping within 48 hours.
“What’s done is still not undone, so the impact has yet to be seen. But obviously markets are breathing a sigh of relief on this news,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Markets, said. – Reuters
Iranian officials claim Trump backed down over ultimatum
Iran’s Fars news agency, quoting an unnamed Iranian source, says there has been no direct contact with US president Donald Trump, “not through an intermediary”.
The source claimed Trump “backed down” after being warned that Iran would target power plants across the Gulf and in Israel.
The report added that Trump had said talks with Iran were under way, despite the source denying any such communication.
The claims could not be independently verified, and there has been no immediate comment from Iranian officials.
Earlier this morning Trump posted on his TruthSocial account that his administration has held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East” with Iran over the past two days.
There has been no official response yet from the Iranian government.
European stocks rebound after Trump announcement
European stocks reversed sharp declines to trade higher after Donald Trump said there had been “very good” talks with Iran over the past few days and that he was postponing military strikes on energy infrastructure.
The Stoxx Europe 600 in London was up 0.7 per cent within minutes of the announcement.
Airlines, luxury goods, banks and semiconductors saw some of the biggest rebounds on the news, while energy stocks plunged with the price of oil.
The region’s shares had fallen as much as 2.5 per cent. in earlier trading after Iran carried out fresh strikes across the Gulf hours before Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was due to expire. – Bloomberg
Oil prices plummet following Trump announcement
The response to president Donald Trump’s suggestion that talks with Iran had been promising saw oil prices immediately plummet.
Oil prices fell by over 13 per cent on Monday after he said he would order the military to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
Brent crude futures had fallen around $17, or 15 per cent to a session low of $96 a barrel just a few minutes after his announcement. The US West Texas Intermediate had fallen $13, or about 13.5 per cent, to a session low of $85.28.
US president Donald Trump has postponed his proposed strikes on Iran if they do not stop attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
In a TruthSocial post, Trump says there have been “productive conversations” about a “complete and total resolution” to the conflict in the Middle East.
He says he will “postpone any and all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure” for a five-day period.
His post on TruthSocial was in all caps. It read: “I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
“BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”
Stock markets continue to tumble around the world
European and Asian stock markets have fallen sharply in Monday trading.
London’s FTSE 100 is down more than 2 per cent and is now lower than it was in December last year. Germany’s Dax index and France’s Cac 40 are also down by about 2 per cent.
In the Far East Japan’s Nikkei fell by 3.5 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi sank 6.5 per cent amid growing fears that these countries’ dependence on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a recession.
“Trump’s ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz has sent another jolt of worry through markets,” Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told the BBC.
“The war has become intractable, and any possibility of shipments resuming in a meaningful way through the vital waterway seems a dim and distant hope right now.”
Construction body warns of escalating costs as a result of Iran war
The Construction Industry Federation (CIF) has warned the war in Iran could see lead to “deeply alarming” rises in the cost of building.
The survey of 200 construction companies, carried out between January 30th and February 24th, before the war began, found rising costs as a concern for the industry with 79 per cent reporting a year-on-year increase in the cost of raw materials.
The federation warned the recent surge in oil prices following the outbreak of war in Iran could further accelerate cost increases for the industry.
CIF chief executive Andrew Brownlee said: “As oil prices surge in the wake of the war in Iran, we are seeing renewed concern across the Irish construction industry about the volatility this is injecting into global markets and its impact on the cost of construction materials and fuel.
“The sector has already been operating in an environment of significant cost inflation for some time.
“Fuel is a core driver of costs. It underpins the manufacture and transport of construction materials and is a fundamental day‑to‑day business cost.
“As a small island economy, transportation and logistics form a major component of our material costs, so shocks of this magnitude have an outsized impact on construction project viability.
“Navigating these price shocks will require careful cost management and ongoing monitoring of supply‑chain pressures in the weeks ahead.”
China warns against ‘vicious cycle’ of violence in the Middle East
China has urged all parties involved in the Middle East conflict, particularly the US and Israel, to cease military operations, warning of a “vicious cycle” in a war that analysts say, if prolonged, could undermine global growth and weaken demand for Chinese exports.
“The one who tied the bell must be the one to untie it,” said Chinese special envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun at a briefing after his shuttle-diplomacy trip that included stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
China will maintain close communication with all parties concerned and make unremitting efforts to ease tensions and promote regional peace and stability, he said.
In a separate briefing, foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian cautioned that the use of force would only lead to a “vicious cycle” and said the war should not have been started.
“Should the hostilities continue to spread and intensify, the entire region will be plunged into chaos,” he said.
Trump on Saturday imposed a 48-hour deadline on Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants otherwise.
Iranian attacks have effectively closed the key waterway, which carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, causing the worst oil crisis since the 1970s.
While Beijing did not detail its concerns, a prolonged conflict could weigh on China’s export outlook.
Emerging markets – key drivers of Chinese export growth – are particularly vulnerable due to limited oil reserves and sensitivity to rising energy costs.
“Weakening growth in China’s emerging market trading partners will likely weigh on Chinese exports to these countries in the coming quarters,” Goldman Sachs’s Hui Shan said in a report about the current near-term risks to China’s economy.
China is relatively better positioned to absorb higher oil prices with coal accounting for about 60 per cent of its energy mix, ample oil stockpiles and imports via the Strait of Hormuz representing only about 5 per cent of total energy consumption.
Starmer plays down Iranian threat to UK
British prime minister Keir Starmer said there is “no assessment” that the UK is being targeted by Iran.
It comes after the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on Saturday that Iran now has “missiles that can reach London, Paris or Berlin”. An Iranian missile would need to travel about 4,000km to reach London.
The claim, shared on X, came after reports that Iran had unsuccessfully fired ballistic missiles at the Diego Garcia US-UK military base, which is about 3,750km from Iran’s southern coast.
Asked whether the UK was within range of Iranian missiles, following the attempted Diego Garcia attack, Starmer said the government carries out assessments “all the time in order to keep us safe, and there’s no assessment that we’re being targeted in that way at all”.
UAE resumes some natural gas production
The United Arab Emirates resumed operations at its largest natural gas processing plant, after an attack last week had forced a halt to the facility that is vital for supplying much of the country’s requirements, according to a person familiar with the situation.
At the same time, the nation’s only operating LNG production plant at Das Island in the Gulf is operating at very low levels due to the inability to export via the Strait of Hormuz, according to the source.
The six-million-ton-a-year facility has not been fully halted to allow for a quick restart whenever the strait reopens, the person said, without providing details on the plant’s operating rate.
Global shares continue to slide downwards
Global shares slid on Monday while US bond yields hit eight-month peaks as the US and Iran traded escalating threats and Israel planned for “weeks” more fighting, sending oil prices on another roller-coaster ride.
The 48 hour deadline set by US president Donal Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ends at 11.44pm tonight.
Iran on Sunday said it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours if Trump followed through with a threat to hit Iran’s electricity grid within 48 hours, extinguishing any hope of an early end to the war, now in its fourth week.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International broadest index of global stocks ticked 0.6 per cent lower on Monday, adding to over 7.4 per cent of losses for the month.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei fell 3.5 per cent, and nerves finally hit China, where blue chips headed for their heaviest beating since US tariffs hit markets last year.
European shares opened lower, falling to a four-month low, led by the defence sector, as a spike in crude prices prompted investors to factor in potential inflation pressures with the Middle East conflict intensifying. The pan-European stocks index was last down 1.75 per cent.
S&P 500 futures slipped 0.6 per cent, while Nasdaq futures lost 0.7 per cent
Oil prices were again choppy with Brent last up 0.8 per cent at $113.20 a barrel, more than 55 per cent higher for the month so far. U.S. crude gained 0.9 per cent to $99.15.
Near-term supplies have been aided by the US allowing Iranian and Russian oil to be sold from tankers, but the growing risk of longer-term shortages was lifting futures down the curve. September Brent, for instance, was up $2 at $93.90, suggesting high prices were here to stay.
European stocks slumped, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index on course for a correction from its February record high, as the conflict in the Middle East escalated.
The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 1.5 per cent by 8.21am in London, leaving it more than 11 per cent below its February peak and in technical correction.
The Stoxx Europe 600 is an aggregate of 90 per cent of stocks from Europe’s biggest companies.
Sectors retreated across the board, with industrials and mining shares among the biggest laggards.
The region’s shares fell after Iran carried out fresh strikes across the Gulf hours before US president Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires.
“Trump’s ultimatum is aggravating the situation and is clearly being reflected in equity markets,” said Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at Wisdomtree – Bloomberg.
Iran threat marks major escalation in crisis
The Middle East energy wars are on the cusp of a dangerous escalation, with potentially catastrophic consequence, Mark Weiss writes from Jerusalem.
Iran has responded to US president Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping with a series of counter threats.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that should the US strike, the strategic waterway would not be reopened “until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt”. If energy facilities are targeted, companies with US shares will be “completely destroyed” and energy assets in countries that host American bases will be “lawful” targets for Iranian strikes, the IRGC said in a statement.
You can read his analysis here.
Ireland faces weeks more disruption to energy markets that at a minimum will be “more severe” if the war in the Gulf persists, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has told the Government.
A paper given by the IEA’s top energy economist to the State’s energy affordability taskforce on Thursday said huge volumes of oil and gas will not be produced by Gulf countries this month even assuming flows gradually resume towards the end of March.
With storage filling in the Gulf and no capacity to ship oil out, or with facilities impacted by Iranian attacks, it warned that “if flows do not start to resume in late March, the impact will be more severe”.
Here’s political correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones’ report.
Iran warns it will mine the Strait of Hormuz if attacks persist
An attack on Iran’s southern coast and islands will lead to Gulf routes being cut with the laying of sea mines, the country’s defence council said on Monday, according to state media.
The US is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main oil export hub, to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, according to Axios.
“Any attempt to attack Iran’s coasts or islands will cause all access routes in the Gulf (...) to be mined with various types of sea mines, including floating mines that can be released from the coast,” the statement read.
“In this case, the entire Gulf will practically be in a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long time (...) One should not forget the failure of more than 100 minesweepers in the 1980s in removing a few sea mines.”
The defence council recalled that non-belligerent states can only pass through the Strait of Hormuz by co-ordinating passage with Iran. – Reuters
Ukraine targets Russian oil and gas facilities
While the rest of the world is focused on Iran, Ukraine has conducted massive drone attacks on Russian oil facilities overnight.
Its attack on Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, one of the country’s key oil export hubs, has damaged a fuel tank, according to local authorities.
However, Nasa satellite imagery and social media would suggest the damage was much more extensive than that with multiple fires burning at the refinery.
Air defences destroyed more than 50 drones over the region overnight, Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the Leningrad region, said in a Telegram post early on Monday. Efforts to repel the attack were continuing, he said.
Primorsk is one of Russia’s main seaborne crude export terminals. The port has previously been targeted by Ukraine, including attacks in 2025 that temporarily disrupted loadings.
Ukraine has not commented on the incident so far. The country has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure since the start of the Iran war with a view to depriving Russia of revenue from surging energy prices.
Four Jewish ambulances burned in suspected anti-Semitic attack in London
An arson attack on four ambulances belonging to a Jewish community ambulance service in north London is being treated as an “anti-Semitic hate crime”, the Metropolitan Police says.
Four Hatzola ambulances were found on fire after the London Fire Brigade was called to Highfield Road in Golders Green at around 1.40am.
Hatzola is a large non-profit, volunteer Jewish organisation that provides people emergency medical response and transportation to hospitals for free.
The fire brigade said multiple cylinders in the vehicles exploded and caused windows to break in an nearby block of flats.
Six fire engines and about 40 firefighters were sent to contain the blaze.
Nearby houses were evacuated as a precaution, and about 30 people have been taken to a local shelter.
There were no injuries, police said, and all fires have been put out. There have been no arrests so far, they added.
Government cautious over the length of fuel relief
A tax rebate scheme for hauliers, a double fuel allowance payment and a reduction in excise duty to cut fuel prices at the pumps are all expected to be agreed by the Government on Monday, but the measures due to be announced on Tuesday will initially be in place for only a number of weeks.
The Coalition will this week have to manage the public’s expectations of how long they can expect such relief to last, while also being blunt that it “cannot shield people from the full impact of the war”, a Government source told Irish Times political correspondent Ellen Coyne. You can read her report here.
British cabinet set for emergency meeting over Strait of Hormuz
Keir Starmer is set to convene an emergency Cobra meeting on Monday after a call with Donald Trump to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
In a conversation on Sunday night, the British prime minister and the US president agreed reopening the strait was “essential” to stabilise a global energy market that had seen oil prices rocket since Trump began his joint campaign with Israel against Iran.
The 20-minute call, described by sources as “constructive”, followed a week in which Trump had heavily criticised Starmer’s response to the crisis amid the president’s demand for other nations to send ships to open the strait.
Other nations have so far resisted his demand, with the UK thought to be unlikely to send vessels because of the high level of risk in the strait and an unwillingness to be drawn into the wider war.
But Tehran’s unsuccessful attempt to strike the UK-US base on Diego Garcia with ballistic missiles has raised concerns that much of Europe could be within range of Iranian weapons.
While the strait remains effectively closed to most shipping, the impact on the global energy market and the global economy is set to continue.
Facing the threat of higher inflation and concerns about disruption to fuel supplies, Starmer will convene his top ministers at a Cobra meeting on Monday afternoon.
Stock markets fall in early trade
Share markets slid in Asia in early trade while US bond yields hit eight-month peaks as the United States and Iran traded escalating threats and Israel planned for “weeks” more fighting, sending oil prices on another rollercoaster ride.
Iran said on Sunday it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours if US president Donald Trump followed through with a threat to hit Iran’s electricity grid in 48 hours, extinguishing any hope of an early end to the war, now in its fourth week.
Trump warned Iran had two days to fully open the vital Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed for most vessels with little prospect of naval protection for shipping.
Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.8 per cent, bringing losses for March so far to over 13 per cent. South Korea’s market shed 5.2 per cent, making a 12 per cent drop for the month.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 2.5 per cent, while Chinese blue chips dropped 1.9 per cent. – Reuters
Iran vows to retaliate if its power stations are attacked
Iran will retaliate to an attack on its electricity sector by targeting Israel’s power plants as well as power plants supplying US bases with electricity in regional countries, a statement by the Revolutionary Guards on Monday said.
The statement seemingly retracted earlier threats to desalination plants in the region, which are crucial for providing drinking water in Gulf countries.
“The lying ... US president has claimed that the Revolutionary Guards intends to attack the water desalination plants and cause hardship to the people of the countries in the region,” the statement shared on state media said.
On Saturday, US president Donald Trump warned that Iranian power plants would be targeted if Tehran failed to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping within 48 hours.
“We are determined to respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms of deterrence ... If you hit electricity, we hit electricity,” the Revolutionary Guards said. – Reuters
International Energy Agency open to releasing more oil stocks
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more stockpiled oil “if necessary” due to the Iran war, executive director Fatih Birol said this morning.
“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it. We look at the conditions, we will analyse, assess the markets and discuss with our member countries,” Birol told the National Press Club in Canberra.
IEA member nations agreed on March 11th to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat the spike in global crude prices. The drawdown represented 20 per cent of overall stocks.
There would not be a specific crude price level to trigger another release, Birol said.
“A stock release will help to comfort the markets, but this is not the solution. It will only help to reduce the pain in the economy.”
The IEA chief began his world tour in Canberra as the Asia Pacific is at the forefront of the oil crisis, he said, given its reliance on oil and other crucial products such as fertiliser and helium transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
He described the crisis in the Middle East as “very severe” and worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s, as well as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gas, put together.
The war on Iran had taken 11 million barrels of oil per day from global supply, more than the two prior oil shocks combined.
“The single most important solution to this problem is opening the Hormuz Strait,” he said.
“The depth of the problem was not well appreciated by the decision makers around the world,” he said of his decision to begin speaking publicly three weeks into the war. – Reuters
