Ukraine hit Moscow with nearly 200 drones in its largest-ever attack on the Russian capital on Thursday, striking an oil refinery and sending huge plumes of smoke billowing over the city’s south.
It offered a stark demonstration of Ukraine’s growing ability to strike deep inside Russia with its increasingly sophisticated, largely domestically produced long-range drones.
What was hit?
The main target was the main oil refinery in Moscow’s Kapotnya district on the capital’s southeastern edge.
The refinery supplies up to 40 per cent of the capital’s petrol and about half of its diesel fuel. At least one high-rise residential building, plus an industrial facility and several private homes were also damaged in the attack, with Russian authorities reporting 17 injuries.
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How did Ukraine do it?
Ukraine frequently launches drone attacks against Moscow, but the vast majority are intercepted by the capital’s extensive air-defence network, the densest in the country. This time was different.
The sheer scale of the attack appears to have strained Russian air-defence systems. Videos circulating online showed Ukrainian drones flying over the city largely unchallenged, suggesting some were able to penetrate Moscow’s layered defences.
The mix of weapons used may also have played a role. Alongside conventional long-range strike drones typically deployed against targets deep inside Russia, Ukraine appears to have employed jet-powered missile drones during Thursday’s attack. Faster and more difficult to intercept than conventional propeller-driven drones, they pose a growing challenge for Russian air defences.
What are the lasting effects?
By targeting a key oil refinery, Ukraine hopes to bring the consequences of the war closer to ordinary Russians. Previous attacks on energy infrastructure have led to fuel shortages in parts of the country, most notably in Russian-occupied Crimea, where residents have spent hours queuing at petrol stations.
Much will depend on the extent of the damage to the refinery, on Russia’s ability to redirect fuel supplies from elsewhere and on Ukraine’s capacity to sustain further strikes.
But arguably the greater impact will be psychological. For the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many Muscovites could look out of their apartment windows and see smoke rising over the capital.
How will Putin respond?
Russian president Vladimir Putin, who is attending a summit with several Asian leaders in Kazan, has yet to comment publicly on the strike. The Russian president typically avoids addressing sensitive developments immediately, preferring to leave initial responses to officials and state media.
The most likely response is a renewed wave of large-scale missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities. – The Guardian
