Wary European leaders are to meet senior Trump officials at the Munich Security Conference on Friday amid growing doubt – and dissent – over the future of the transatlantic relationship.
A year after US vice-president JD Vance’s broadside against Europe, European Union leaders are hoping for the best with US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
But a year into US president Donald Trump’s second term, as ongoing efforts to resolve the Ukraine-Russia war are complicated by unresolved crises in Greenland and elsewhere, some EU leaders heading to Munich prepared for the worst.
Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, urged her EU colleagues to remain united after last month’s “Greenland moment”, when Trump threatened a US takeover of the Danish territory – by force, if necessary.
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“I would have preferred a world where allies didn’t threaten each other, where Russia didn’t conduct a war, but the old world is not coming back,” she said.
Despite global disquiet and disorder, there is quiet confidence among some European representatives that their united front on Washington’s Greenland demands – now nudged into a closed-door committee – offers a blueprint for defusing future conflicts.
German chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to remain pragmatic, if robustly realistic, in his keynote address on Friday.
After a bilateral meeting with Rubio, however, Merz will also meet Trump arch-rival Gavin Newsom, California’s Democratic governor. The chancellor will also meet China’s foreign minister Wang Yi as well as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy with the French and UK leaders.
US analysts expect Rubio to remain consistent on Trump policy in Munich but less contentious than Vance a year ago, seeking instead areas of co-operation on shared global and regional concerns, including the Middle East and Ukraine.
EU leaders will be watching closely for early US signals on a French-backed proposal to attach “buy European” strings to future EU funding and state contracts.
French president Emmanuel Macron has championed the idea to protect key sectors and ensure more money flows back into European industries.
After an EU leaders’ retreat on Thursday in Limburg, northeast Belgium, European Council president António Costa announced “broad agreement” for a European preference scheme if used “in selected, strategic sectors, in a proportionate and targeted way”.
There are concerns in Dublin, as well as other capitals including Berlin and Rome, that such an approach could stoke tensions if perceived by Washington as overly protectionist.
It is understood the Government believes any preference clauses should include multinational companies with significant EU operations, rather than just European-owned firms.
Speaking on Thursday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said any restrictions that were too protectionist in nature would run “somewhat counter” to separate EU efforts to expand its trade with India and a host of other countries.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee will represent Ireland in Munich, accompanied by Thomas Byrne, the Minister of State for European Affairs and Defence.
