If the two-week ceasefire agreed this week between the United States and Iran survives and this weekend’s talks in Islamabad are the start of negotiations towards peace, Pakistan will deserve much of the credit.
Uniquely placed by virtue of their warm relationship with the White House, long-standing diplomatic ties to neighbouring Iran and a security partnership with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s diplomats found a landing spot that might have eluded others.
Other states played a part too, notably Turkey and Egypt, whose foreign ministers worked with those of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to get the peace process going. According to Donald Trump and Iranian officials cited by The New York Times, China also played a crucial role in persuading Tehran to accept the ceasefire.
Trump told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that China was responsible for persuading Iran to come to the negotiating table as the deadline approached for his threat to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants. The New York Times on Wednesday cited three Iranian officials who said Beijing asked the leadership in Tehran to show flexibility and defuse tensions.
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China has said little about its role in securing the ceasefire, with foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning neither confirming nor denying Beijing’s involvement as she welcomed it.
“China has consistently advocated for an immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities, as well as the resolution of disputes through political and diplomatic channels,” she said.
Foreign minister Wang Yi has certainly been active, making 26 calls to his counterparts around the Middle East while a special envoy shuttled around the region. And as the buyer of 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and a long-standing strategic partner, Beijing certainly has influence in Tehran.
Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar was in Beijing last week when China and Pakistan published a five-point initiative to end the war in Iran. It called for a ceasefire and the start of peace talks as soon as possible; an immediate halt to attacks on non-military targets; safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz; and a recognition of the primacy of the United Nations Charter.
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“The Strait of Hormuz, together with its adjacent waters, is an important global shipping route for goods and energy. China and Pakistan call on the parties to protect the security of ships and crew members stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, allow the early and safe passage of civilian and commercial ships, and restore normal passage through the strait as soon as possible,” it said.
While China was pressuring Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, it was also offering cover to the Islamic Republic at the United Nations Security Council where it joined Russia in vetoing a Bahraini resolution calling for the strait to be reopened. And while Beijing consistently identified the US and Israel as the aggressor and Iran as the victim over the past six weeks, the conflict has not derailed trade talks with Washington before Trump’s visit to China next month.
China’s discretion about the role it may have played in persuading Iran to accept the ceasefire reflects its general approach to mediation, which values secrecy in negotiations and avoids the limelight when talks are going on. This approach has been evident in the past week as China has sought to facilitate a de-escalation of the increasingly dangerous conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Chinese, Pakistani and Afghan diplomats on Wednesday ended a week of meetings in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang province, during which none of the parties leaked any details of the negotiations. But cross-border confrontations, which have included artillery exchanges and ground clashes, have stopped for now.
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China is Pakistan’s most dependable strategic, military and economic partner but it is also important to the Taliban in Kabul as a source of investment, security co-operation and diplomatic recognition. And just as it has an interest in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and protecting its investments in the Gulf monarchies, China fears that the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan could disrupt its trade routes to Central Asia.
Pakistan has been attacking targets in Afghanistan because it claims that the militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have been carrying out attacks on its territory from the other side of the Afghan border. Although the TTP is distinct from the Taliban who govern Afghanistan, Islamabad claims that Kabul is either protecting the militants or turning a blind eye to them.
Beijing has its own beef with Kabul over militants, demanding that the Taliban should suppress the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, which is based in Afghanistan. The group, which is subject to UN sanctions, is responsible for armed attacks aimed at achieving independence for Xinjiang but which helped to trigger the Chinese authorities’ crackdown on Islamism that saw an estimated one million people detained in “vocational education and training centres”.
