Three months since becoming Japan’s first woman prime minister, Sanae Takaichi has taken the risky step of calling a snap election in a bid to convert her popularity into more political power.
Voters will again trudge to the polling stations just 15 months since Japan’s last general election, and after the shortest campaign in postwar history: polls open on February 8th. Ms Takaichi is the country’s fourth leader in five years.
“Is Sanae Takaichi fit to be prime minister?” she asked this week. “I would ask people to make a direct judgment on whether they should entrust me with running the nation.” She said the decision to dissolve parliament on Friday is a “bet” on her future.
The former newscaster’s novelty value, brand of right-wing populism and fiscal promiscuity has kept her aloft in opinion polls so far. She is banking on this translating into more seats in the Lower House for her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), after it was trounced in several recent elections.
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The LDP, which has ruled Japan for all but a handful of years since 1955, has seen support siphoned away by right-wing upstarts, but it holds a thin parliamentary majority with its new coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP).
[ Takaichi gambles with snap election to pursue radical agenda at home and abroad ]
Ms Takaichi is attempting to court voters by temporarily exempting food from an unpopular consumption tax, reversing her previous opposition. But that proposal by the leader of the world’s most-indebted rich country has alarmed markets.
The 40-year rate for Japanese bond yields – a key measure of fiscal health – hit their highest level this week since their debut in 2007, suggesting that investors do not believe the government can balance its books by cutting taxes and spending more. The bonds rebounded after finance minister Satsuki Katayama called for calm.
Ms Takaichi supports a revival of Abenomics, named after her late predecessor Shinzo Abe, a programme of heavy government spending to drive away persistent deflation. But she is hemmed in by Japan’s public debt – 240 per cent of GDP – and by rising spending on welfare and defence.
In December, her cabinet approved a record nine trillion yen (€48 billion) defence budget for fiscal year 2026, up 9.4 per cent from 2025. The government aims to double annual military spending to 2 per cent of gross domestic product, mainly to counter China.
The previous month, Ms Takaichi outflanked her hawkish mentor Mr Abe by dropping Japan’s strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, infuriating Beijing. Takaichi said any attempt by China to use force against the self-governing island, which China calls a renegade province, would likely constitute a “survival-threatening situation”, compelling Japan to intervene.
China has responded by curbing imports and limiting travel and cultural exchanges to Japan. Opposition parties have criticised Ms Takaichi for playing chicken with Japan’s giant neighbour, but she has refused to back down. A poll this month by Jiji Press showed about twice as much support as disapproval for her stance.
But hiking military spending is unpopular in Japan. A survey by public broadcaster NHK last week found most respondents (45 per cent) worried about the rising cost of living, making the election partly a referendum on government spending priorities.
Ms Takaichi will face an opposition led by the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance, which is a coalition of the LDP’s former partner, Komeito, and the moderate Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. The latter party has dropped its opposition to the LDP’s security reforms and shifted right on several issues in an apparent attempt to compete with Ms Takaichi.
In personalising next month’s election, Takaichi risks calling more attention to her more controversial decisions. She has been accused of being soft on party corruption, a claim sharpened by her appointment of several scandal-tainted ministers and her pledge to appoint more.
If she wins, the prime minister will come under pressure to chart a more moderate fiscal course, while also trying to satisfy popular demand to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and boost military outlays – all in a country with a falling population.
