Japan’s prime minister is hoping to capitalise on her huge personal popularity by calling a snap election. But it’s a risky gamble.
Takaichi rolls the dice
Sanae Takaichi told senior figures in her coalition yesterday that she plans to dissolve the lower house of parliament next week and call an early general election, probably on February 8th or February 15th.
After three months at the head of a government with a majority of just one seat, the prime minister is looking for a stronger mandate to pursue her radical agenda of fiscal expansion at home and assertive nationalism abroad.
A former television news anchor, Takaichi is enormously popular, with some polls putting her personal approval rating at 78 per cent and even higher among young women. The devotion she inspires in some admirers has produced an industry of “Sana-katsu”, selling items such as the handbag or the pen she uses and sweets and biscuits with images of her in her trademark blue suit.
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It was a snap election that misfired in 2024 that eventually led to Takaichi taking over the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) from Shigeru Ishiba. And it will be a challenge for the prime minister to turn her personal appeal into votes for her party, which is a lot less popular than she is.
Her task is complicated by the decision of the smaller Komeito party, which left the governing coalition last year, to ally with the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). A centrist party linked to a Buddhist group, Komeito stepped aside in many constituencies to allow the LDP to win more seats in the 2024 election.
This time, Komeito and the CDP are likely to facilitate one another and there is even talk of a merger that could challenge the LDP in dozens of constituencies. A party with pacifist roots, Komeito is opposed to Takaichi’s plan to accelerate defence spending and dislikes her harsh rhetoric on immigration.
The election will be watched closely from Beijing, which is in the midst of a diplomatic stand-off with Tokyo over Takaichi’s suggestion that military action against Taiwan could represent an existential threat to Japan, justifying the deployment of Japanese forces. China demanded an apology and when Takaichi declined to offer one, the authorities in Beijing advised Chinese tourists to avoid Japan and introduced export controls for dual-use goods that are used in manufacturing but could have a military application.
A defeat for Takaichi would give Beijing a chance to reset its relationship with Japan under a new prime minister, as it has with South Korea under president Lee Jae Myung. Her victory could mean there will be more bumpy months ahead until Beijing and Tokyo follow their mutual interest by finding an accommodation that saves face on both sides.
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