Fermanagh fall follows familiar formula

To some there was an air of inevitability about Fermanagh's defeat by Armagh at the weekend.

Fundamentally, it wasn't simply a matter of Armagh's good form or the fact they had been surprised by their opponents last year because precedent indicates that teams who achieve major breakthroughs one year have difficulty emulating them the next.

This is often because the breakthrough has come as the culmination of a couple of seasons' improvement, leaving a sense that the team have peaked, but also a feeling of fatigue.

Westmeath, the stars of the first All-Ireland qualifier series, struggled to repeat the achievement and last year's Leinster title came three years subsequent to that season with a revamped team and new management.

Sligo beat Tyrone and took eventual All-Ireland winners Armagh to a replay in 2002, but fell away in the years that followed.

Mayo manager John Maughan led Clare to an historic Munster title - a first in 75 years - in 1992 and experienced the difficulties involved in following through for a second season. Drawn against a new-look Cork team that went on reach that year's All-Ireland final, Clare were defeated.

"We were beaten by seven points," he says, "but the scoreline didn't really do us justice. The roll started in 1990 and we won the All-Ireland B title the next year and Munster the year after that. The team were also playing with huge intensity in the National League, getting promoted and reaching the play-offs. So we were at full revs for three years."

Maughan makes the point that fatigue sets in after a team has been performing at a significantly higher level than usual over a sustained period.

Clare had gradually improved, running Meath close in the 1992 league quarter-final and reaching the semi-final a year later.

He also believes that part of any emerging team's armoury is the fact that opponents underrate them, a dangerous miscalculation when the underdogs' self-belief can be surprisingly high.

Maughan remembers well the morning of the 1992 Munster final when Clare were about to travel to Limerick to take on Kerry. "I was there in the West County Hotel in Ennis that morning and if anyone had come up to me and asked if I wanted to put my house on beating Kerry I'd have said yes. I was that confident, that convinced we were going to win."

The fatigue that undermines such teams when they return the following season is more mental than physical. Fitness can be developed and stored in residue. Appetite and sharpness can't be attained as easily.

"Staleness is always a concern. Keeping players fresh is difficult. A long championship run milks you dry psychologically. Guys can't get any spare time because of the social restrictions.

"I was very concerned by this and tried to give them some time off and keep them fresh because going into the championship with the appetite sharp is so important.

"It's difficult to sustain it and particularly for Fermanagh who had to play Armagh. Other opponents mightn't have had quite the same intensity. Armagh have been championship prepared since the latter stages of the National League. It's particularly hard for counties who don't have great reserves, which small counties generally don't."

Fermanagh do, however, have one advantage that Clare didn't - the qualifier series. The opportunity to pick themselves up and go again is at the least therapeutic and Maughan believes they have the potential.

"The qualifiers are a format that Fermanagh are very comfortable with and have done well in the past couple of years."