Can Africa take the big step?

Jon Brodkin wonders if after several abortive attempts an African team can go the distance at the World Cup

When Roger Milla danced around corner flags in Italy 12 years ago and inspired Cameroon's progress to a World Cup quarter-final, it seemed Pele might be the next Nostradamus after all. The Brazilian had predicted an African team would win the game's greatest prize in the 20th Century, and the Indomitable Lions' displays suggested that the striker's soothsaying would prove as accurate as his shooting.

It took two Gary Lineker penalties to deny Cameroon a place in the semi-final, and Africa's progress appeared confirmed four years later when Nigeria stormed into the second round. They were two minutes from eliminating Italy until Roberto Baggio struck twice.

Since then, though, has come World Cup stagnation. None of Africa's five qualifiers came close to the last eight in France and, when the 23rd African Nations Cup starts here today, millions will be looking for clues. Will the promise remain unfulfilled in South Korea and Japan, or might Pele just have been wrong by two years? For the Republic of Ireland, who open their World Cup against Cameroon, and England, who meet Nigeria in Osaka, events over the next three weeks hold particular interest. Nigeria and Cameroon are favourites, with South Africa, Senegal, Egypt and Ghana in the pack.

Talk of stagnation may seem odd given that football's past two Olympic golds have gone to Cameroon and Nigeria. But Africa knows the World Cup is a vital test. True progress is not measured at the Olympics, essentially an under-23 tournament and treated lightly by some.

"Africa must repeat or go one better than before (at the World Cup) in order to remain among the world football elite," admitted Issa Hayatou, president of the Confederation of African Football. "That is why our wish for Africa's five representatives - Cameroon, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia - is that they succeed in their mission as standard bearers for Africa and win the continent a ticket for the semi-finals."

Many experts consider that unlikely. Emmanuel Maradas, editor of African Soccer, feels Cameroon offer the continent's only genuine hope, and that the last eight is the best the Nations Cup holders can achieve.

"The general feeling is that the Africans will not make as big an impact as in 1990 or 1994," Maradas said. "This time there are a lot of problems. Number one there is the economic situation of most African countries. Number two, some key players for leading nations, such as Nigeria and South Africa, are past their prime.

"Also Nigeria are not the unit they were. This is just a selection of good players. The 1994 team were a unit led by (Daniel) Amokachi and able to compete with any team in the world. But no great player has emerged as a dominant figure in this team, so I doubt they will pass the first round."

There is, though, no shortage of talent, as the squad lists here confirm. Nigeria's Nwankwo Kanu and Cameroon's Lauren Etame Mayer are at Arsenal; Ghana's Sammy Kuffour is at Bayern Munich; Jay-Jay Okocha, widely regarded as Nigeria's biggest star, plays for Paris St-Germain. And that is just a taster.

Cameroon's 22 are all based in Europe and Nigeria's squad is similar. Yet Maradas believes Cameroon remain too inexperienced and prone to moments of madness to succeed this summer, and their new German coach, Winfried Schafer, admits there is work to be done.

"I have no doubt about the individual ability of my players," he said. "But I feel they lack self-belief, tactical discipline and organisation - virtues that make German football tick."

Matters off the pitch also continue to hold back African teams. It is easy to overlook the disadvantage of never playing a World Cup on home soil, though that should change in 2010, and the build-up to the Nations Cup has offered reminders of issues that are a habitual hindrance: preparation, organisation and money.

When it comes to self-destruction only Holland come close to matching African sides. A row over salaries and bonuses undermined Cameroon's efforts at USA '94, and Nigeria had similar problems there and four years later. The lead-up to the start here has seen familiar squabbles.

Liberia dropped their threat to pull out over a pay dispute as late as Wednesday, the day after player-coach, George Weah, arrived to take training only for none of his squad to turn up. Senegal have been embroiled in a row relating to bonuses, and Nigeria, too, have been affected.

Ipswich's Finidi George insists everyone is "committed and dedicated" and the Nigerian public expects nothing less. Questions are asked in some quarters, though, as to whether the wealth and pampering the stars enjoy in Europe saps their hunger with the national side.

"Sometimes with African players when they were earning less you saw them fighting, giving you everything," said Maradas. "When you have £1 million in the bank, a villa in Lagos and two cars in front, you are home and dry."

Yet poverty does nothing to help. African national associations have little money and domestic leagues are mainly poor in pay, quality and conditions.

The well of talent is hardly running dry, though. Last year Ghana finished second in the world under-20 championship and Nigeria took silver in the under-17s. Everyone is waiting for such showings in the competition that matters most.