There are perils to setting precedents in unprecedented times, as the Government may be learning the hard way this week.
It did not take long for the chaos unleashed on the Middle East by the military action of the US and Israel against Iran to start to have an influence on the home economics of Irish voters.
Geopolitical shock has led to a 60 per cent spike in the price of home heating oil in under a week, and the Government has been quick to join the chorus of those making allegations of price gouging and profiteering.
Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke is meeting fuel industry representatives on Friday to ask them to account for their pricing structures. The conflict has had an immediate impact on wholesale prices, given that more than half the world’s oil comes via the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has threatened to not let any ships pass through the transit point for a good deal of the world’s oil supply.
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But the Government is concerned about how quickly prices rose, though the oil industry insists that it has not been engaged in profiteering. Either way, the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has been tasked with investigating.
In the short term, the Government will continue to come under pressure to offer some form of relief to the public – many of whom will remember that the Government did introduce an emergency excise duty cut on fuel in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Such is the problem with responding to what used to be unprecedented events. What used to be a once in a generation event tends to come around a lot more often these days.
The pressure to offer some sort of universal relief is likely to mount next week, particularly given that the Government is actually quids in from the price bike because the percentage of tax that it earns from the fuel has also increased with the dramatic price rises.
Ticket prices for Government’s Gulf charter flights raise eyebrows
Meanwhile, the Irish stranded in the Gulf region due to the hostilities are continuing to try to make their way home – either with or without the assistance of the Government.
Commercial flights are starting to trickle out of the region, and some Irish citizens are understood to be waiting for a seat on a plane flown by airlines who had previously cancelled their return flights. A “contribution” of €800 for a place on an Irish Government chartered flight has raised some concerns, particularly from those who point out that it is much higher than many would have paid for a commercial flight.
Speaking of flights, Micheál Martin will have a few hours on his transatlantic jaunt to Washington next week to mull over how he is going to navigate the political tripwire that is Donald Trump’s Oval Office.
The Government was sharply criticised by the Opposition this week for stopping short of calling out the US and Israel for their illegal military action. Martin always challenges rhetoric that presents March 17th as a simplistic opportunity to stand up to the US. The Taoiseach tries to stress that relations with Washington are a year round priority, and it is not worth burning decades of co-operation for the sake of short term political gain.
But it will be difficult for the Government to argue that it can’t go all guns blazing into the White House, when the White House continues to go all guns blazing into the wider world. Trump has not been consistently challenged on his breaches of international law, and it is hard for the Irish Government to completely fail to raise concerns.
In the Dáil this week, Micheál Martin did say that Ireland is “in favour of a multilateral, rules-based international order and has consistently advocated for the same.” But he also presented a somewhat nihilistic view of that same multilateral order, saying that “it has been dysfunctional for quite some time.”
“We believe in a multilateral-based order, but we have to see reality too in terms of the full picture in this regard.”
Heydon’s frosty tone suggests mighty lobby group’s influence waning
Back at the ranch, though it almost went unnoticed with the war in the Middle East dominating events, all is not well between the Government and the Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA).
What had been one of the longest standing and most successful reigns of one of the mightiest lobby groups in the history of the State appears to be in real decline.
Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon gave a media interview this week where he was notably frosty towards the IFA – which is quite notable, given the special treatment governments, and Fine Gael in particular, have always given the representative group. But perhaps not any more.
After the antics of the row over Bord Bia chair Larry Murrin, the Government seems to think the IFA will have a lot of work to do to regain the same access to Merrion Street it previously enjoyed. The IFA is bullish with its president Francie Gorman telling an event in Navan this week that political capital “is there to be spent”.
“Maybe we spent a good bit of it this time around, but we’ll go gathering it up again. We’ll be back in negotiating on behalf of farmers, stronger than ever.”
Almost half of voters didn’t like presidential election options
Cormac McQuinn has an interesting story in today’s paper, based on research the Electoral Commission carried out into last year’s presidential election.
He writes: “The commission said the number of respondents who said they spoiled their vote in response to the Neds survey reflected the national figure of 12 per cent.
“Respondents could offer more than one reason for doing so.
“Forty-five per cent said they did not like any of the candidates while 27 per cent indicated their belief that the process for selecting candidates was “unfair/undemocratic”.
“Not enough choice was a reason for 17 per cent, and 14 per cent said their spoiled ballot was a protest vote against Government policy.
Seven per cent said their preferred candidate was not on the ballot paper.”
