Pat Leahy: Coalition keeps supplying Opposition with ammunition

The shape of post-Covid politics became clearer this week. It is catty and confused; a scrambled and unpredictable maelstrom of competing private and public interests, and of long and short-term priorities. Discerning what is good government and what is responsible opposition is going to be anything but straightforward.

Political exchanges were dominated by the cost-of-living issue. On Thursday, the Government unveiled a package of measures that will help people, a bit, in the short term: not to be sniffed at, but hardly transformational for people who are struggling. The worry in the Department of Finance is that it will have exactly the effect on inflation that you would expect when you pump money into a booming economy: it will fuel it. At the press conference in Government Buildings Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath did their best to be simultaneously enthusiastic and cautious: enthusiastic about the difference the package would make, cautious about the macroeconomic effects. Not an easy act to carry off.

Like administrations all over Europe, the Coalition is caught between a rock and a hard place: fearful of driving inflation higher, it is even more fearful of the public anger if it doesn’t “do something”. You get the strong impression that a lot of Government action on a variety of fronts is driven by this near-manic imperative to respond to the demand – from opposition, media and public – to “do something”. Something, anything, whatever.

The Coalition is fearful of driving inflation higher and even more fearful of the public anger if it doesn't "do something"

There is no doubt that the pressure on many people on limited incomes, for whom one big or unexpected bill is a massive problem, is intense, and that Government action is required and justified. But we also know that chasing inflation by spending more is fraught with risk. More generally, the Government cannot continue trying to solve every problem by throwing money at it.

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Pay increases

Good government certainly requires that the most vulnerable citizens be helped. But to do this responsibly and sustainably will require restraint on spending in many areas – especially on the next public pay round due later this year. Trade unions – which are overwhelmingly public sector-dominated – have already signalled their intention to look for inflation-beating pay increases. That may be the ultimate test for the Government’s claims of prudence. The public interest, after all, is not the same as the interest of the public sector.

For many people, the spectre of rising costs is most tangible and threatening when it comes to rents and house prices. This week reminded us of how central the housing crisis will be to politics for the foreseeable future.

There were acidic exchanges in the Dáil between Micheál Martin and Sinn Féin on Wednesday. Mary Lou McDonald cited figures published by Daft.ie which showed double-digit rent increases in 20 counties. “Clearly the rent cap . . . is a failure,” she thundered. She’s got a point.

The Taoiseach – who has apparently decided to forgo his previous reserve and aggressively pursue Sinn Féin on these occasions – castigated his opponents for their many planning objections to housing developments, which were delaying the building of new houses and apartments, he said. “If we restrict supply, the rents will go up, as sure as night follows day,” he countered. He’s got a point, too.

Martin, a Nemo Rangers man and so perhaps more inclined towards Gaelic football, nevertheless seems to be following in his recent encounters with Sinn Féin the advice of the mythical Cork Christian Brother whose advice to his hurling teams was somewhat less than Christian: when the ball is on the ground, pull a foot above it; when it’s in the air, pull a foot below it.

The Government's problem is not that Sinn Féin is being beastly to it, it's that hundreds of thousands of young people are squeezed out of home ownership

I don’t know if this will be effective; the Government’s problem is not that Sinn Féin is being beastly to it, it’s that hundreds of thousands of young people are squeezed out of home ownership and crucified by high rents. That problem is immune to spirited Dáil performances. But his recent combativeness towards Sinn Féin has certainly cheered some of the Taoiseach’s own party, and has been – I suspect – successful in planting in the mind of the public the idea that Mary Lou’s hands are not entirely clean on this issue either.

Housing solutions

You’ll see that clash between the Government and Sinn Féin on housing repeated exactly along those lines many times in the coming months. It’s the opposition party that has the cards stacked in its favour on the issue: the Government’s only salvation is that the supply of new housing might accelerate over the next three years. That is enough time to make a difference for many tens of thousands of people. It is far from clear it is enough time to make a big enough difference to impact on the politics of the issue.

With the ultimate political tool of executive power, the Government always dominates political discourse. That gives it an advantage, but it is a double-edged sword – frequently it uses the advantage against itself. It’s clear that another aspect of post-Covid politics will be the effective political weaponisation of the Government’s gaffes, accidents, embarrassments and calamities.

Sean Fleming might have been right that people can shop around to reduce costs, but it was crazy to say so. The Coalition seems determined to keep the Opposition supplied with such delightful opportunities; the Opposition will continue to use them to political effect.

The successes of this country – in economic development, education, life expectancy, conflict resolution and so on – have usually been achieved because of good decisions, made over a period of time, with an eye on the long term: the gradual accretion of good government. But politics is too often wedded to short-term fixes, immediate gratification, distractions and rows. It’s always the big stuff that matters. It’s amazing how often everyone loses sight of this.