US president Donald Trump wants western allies through Nato to help keep the Strait of Hormuz clear for energy shipments, to fix a mess that was entirely foreseeable and of his own making. The issue dominated his meeting yesterday with Taoiseach Micheál Martin, with media queries directed to the president, who repeatedly expressed disappointment that Nato help was not forthcoming, drawing a contrast with US support for Ukraine.
With Ireland outside of Nato, the Taoiseach – after warm introductions – was left mostly on the sidelines, intervening to put the Irish position of seeking a peaceful way forward in both conflicts. He joined the president in heavily criticising the repressive Iranian regime – and said that everyone agreed there could not be a “ rogue state with a nuclear weapon.”
But the US president had one focus. He kept returning to the issue of Nato and its lack of support for his mission in Iran. Neither consulted about launching it, nor having any understanding of the US president’s objectives or exit strategy, the other Nato members are holding back. They all have an interest in securing oil supplies. But none want to get involved in the war started by the US and Israel that has also now spread to Lebanon.
As he railed against European states’ ingratitude to the US for its help over the years in paying for Nato, Trump warned that the organisation was making a “ very foolish mistake” by failing to help in opening up the strait. He is, however, facing an unprecedented and broadly united pushback from allies that certainly marks a turning point in the character of the transatlantic alliance.
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UK prime minister Keir Starmer has insisted that the UK will “not be drawn into the wider war”. He was heavily criticised by Trump though the Taoiseach defended the UK prime minister. Germany, Japan and France have dismissed the prospect of sending ships to a war zone. Paris says it will only deploy once hostilities between the US, Iran and its neighbours have ceased. France and other allies are talking about joint patrols only when the fighting has ended and have all put an emphasis on what they call “de-escalation”.
Iran’s ability to disrupt energy shipments has long been the strongest strategic card in its pack. Yet Trump, according to reports, repeatedly rejected advice to take it into account in preparing for a short war that would, he believed, see Iran capitulate quickly. He continued to insist in his White House meeting with the Taoiseach that the US would not be involved for much longer.
His exit strategy, however, remains unclear. Nato allies should only get involved in the context of a diplomatically brokered deal to unravel this illegal war. The terms on which this would happen remain unclear, as does what it might mean for the Iranian people, subject to brutal repression from a regime very much still in place.
