It comes as little surprise that new analysis from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) concludes that Ireland is behind target in reducing emissions from households. This is in line with other areas where emissions targets are also not being met, notably transport. There are also crucial delays in upgrading electricity infrastructure and delivering offshore wind.
The analysis is useful as it puts figures on the shortfall and has straightforward recommendations to try to improve the situation. Delivery was “materially off track” at the end of 2024, it concludes, by which time there were almost 58,000 deep retrofits of homes completed, 11.5 per cent of the 2030 target and just over 14,000 heat pumps installed, 3.5 per cent of target. Even with an acceleration, the 2030 targets will not be met.
The researchers find a range of reasons why progress is lagging, including the high cost to households of retrofitting, which costs an average of €66,000 for a detached house, the disruption involved and the administrative complexity of organising it and accessing the relevant supports. Landlords can also lack an incentive to upgrade rental properties.
They also point to key trade-offs – having more construction staff working on retrofitting means fewer engaged in building new homes, while upgraded homes also put more demand on a strained electricity grid.
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A few approaches to improving the situation are recommended. One is encouraging some households to switch from home heating oil to natural gas or even liquefied natural gas (LNG), which are less polluting. Another is targeting greater supports on the lowest income families which have the least energy efficient homes. A third is increasing the use of ways to align demand better with renewable supply and greater use of “smart” controls.
The underlying message is that cutting household emissions is moving too slowly and more needs to be done. The backdrop of soaring home heating oil prices just underlines this conclusion.
