The gulf between the issues that dominate discussion among the political classes and the concerns of the majority of voters is revealed in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll.
A striking finding of the poll is that Taoiseach Micheál Martin has seen his popularity rise since the last poll in October, in spite of the ongoing controversy over his decision to run former Dublin football manager Jim Gavin as the Fianna Fáil candidate in the Presidential election.
Not alone has Martin’s satisfaction rating risen, despite sustained criticism from some of his TDs, but he is again the most popular political party leader. That is largely because he continues to have the backing of more than 80 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters with 64 per cent of Fine Gael voters also expressing satisfaction with his leadership. In this context, any move against him from within his own party looks most unlikely.
Tánaiste Simon Harris and Sinn Féin leader, Mary Lou McDonald, have seen their ratings fall since the last poll, while the Government’s rating has slipped marginally.
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When it comes to the state of the parties, the overriding message is the level of stability in the political system since the general election over a year ago. Fianna Fáil is up two points to 19 per cent, Fine Gael remains on 18 per cent while Sinn Féin is down three points to 24 per cent.
Sinn Féin’s support has drifted between 22 per cent and 27 per cent since the general election in November 2024, but it might have been expected to make gains in the wake of its Presidential election success. Instead it is now ten points below the support level it was regularly achieving three years ago before the sharp downturn in advance of the general election.
The main beneficiaries from the Sinn Féin slide appear to be the Social Democrats on the left and Independent Ireland on the right. Support for non party Independents has remained largely steady at 15 per cent.
The Labour Party will be disappointed with the two point fall in support despite its participation in Catherine Connolly’s campaign but by contrast the Social Democrats seem to have benefited from the experience while the Greens are up a point.
The number of undecided voters has increased by four points to 27 per cent since the last poll which is hardly surprising given that a general election is up to four years away.
The message for both Government and Opposition is that many voters are continuing to withhold judgment until they can get a clear picture of where the country is going. With close to 40 per cent support for the Government parties and a similar share going to the left wing Opposition parties, the non aligned Independents remain in a crucial position.
