Donald Trump this week spoke somewhat bewilderingly of his “little excursion” in Iran, language akin to Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, although the US president has not yet tried to ban use of the word “war”.
Polls suggest 56 per cent of US voters oppose the military action in Iran, and, anxious to downplay to his troubled Maga supporters his reckless military adventurism, Trump has been struggling to reconcile repeated promises to get out quickly with an insistence he will not leave without completing an impossibly ambitious agenda.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much … we’re very far ahead of schedule,” he said on Tuesday. But he has also repeatedly redefined his war justification and aims, initially referring to an “imminent threat” from Iran, then the destruction of the Islamic republic’s ballistic arsenal and nuclear programme, the need for regime change, and the free passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. All far from accomplished. The US, he said, would not “relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated … We haven’t won enough” and “unconditional surrender” was needed.
Cornered and battling for its life, the Iranian regime has been lashing out in all directions, fighting an asymmetrical war of attrition, successfully embroiling neighbouring states and now cutting off transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump imagined it would fold like Venezuela but, untroubled by any viable opposition, the regime has pledged to fight on and to seal off the strait.
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The vagueness about Trump’s intentions is reflected in his ambiguity about “boots on the ground”, a prospect particularly alarming his Maga base. There has been talk of special forces going in to seize what remains of Iran’s enriched uranium. Meanwhile, military commentators warn that the US cannot easily guarantee safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz or close down the decentralised production of drones.
Perhaps most alarming about Trump’s exclusive reliance on the air war is the dangerous delusion that Iran’s people, unarmed and unprotected from the ruthless Revolutionary Guard thugs, are ready and able to rise up and replace the regime. Trump is creating the conditions for more massacres of civilians, without offering the protesters any reasonable prospect of success.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israel replays its war on Gaza playbook with mass illegal forced displacements and a bombing war which is taking a heavy toll among civilians.
Against this complex backdrop, ending the war looks a lot more complicated for the US president than starting it was. Bereft of any apparent strategy and surprised by the extent of Iranian resistance, Trump will struggle to find a way out which does not leave behind a terrible mess.
