Analysis: Process takes shape and it’s a hard exit from EU

After months of declaiming blankly that "Brexit means Brexit", Theresa May has at last begun to sketch out the shape of Britain's negotiations to leave the European Union.

Addressing the opening session of the Conservative party conference in Birmingham, she announced that formal talks to leave would start before the end of March next year; that she would initially transpose all EU laws into British law; and that Britain was heading for a hard Brexit.

The first two announcements, heavily trailed in the media before the speech, caused no surprise. May had already ruled out invoking article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before the end of this year, and with Britain's EU partners and her own Brexiteer MPs getting impatient, it was always likely to happen early in 2017.

Identical laws

The Great Repeal Bill she plans to introduce before next summer is less portentous than its name suggests. It will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act, which brought Britain into the Common Market, and will replace EU law with identical British laws. The Bill would not come into force until after Britain leaves the EU, and parliament can then decide which of the EU laws it wants to keep, and which it prefers to scrap or amend.

The most significant part of the prime minister’s speech was her clear statement of preference for a hard Brexit, even as she rejected the entire concept of a hard or soft departure from the EU. She explicitly ruled out adopting a Norwegian or Swiss model, which would allow Britain to leave the EU but remain in the single market. Although she said she wanted British companies to have “the maximum freedom to trade with and operate in” the single market, she left no doubt that controlling immigration will trump single market access.

“Let me be clear. We are not leaving the European Union only to give up control of immigration again. And we are not leaving only to return to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice,” she said.

May has told her ministers to stop giving a running commentary on Brexit negotiations but her government's three leading Brexiteers – Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox – appear unable to help themselves. Yesterday Johnson spoke of "taking back control of our tariff schedules in Geneva", something that would require Britain to leave the EU customs union as well as the single market.

Close ally

Transport secretary Chris Grayling, who campaigned for Leave and is a close ally of May*, also suggested Britain would be out of the customs union, telling the BBC, "we want to forge new trading ties around the world".

Perhaps the most telling evidence that May has set Britain on course for a hard Brexit came in Ukip’s response to her announcements.

"Theresa May has just delivered a speech that accepts the decision of the people of the United Kingdom. Control of our borders, laws, fisheries and money should be in our parliament's hands. All are Ukip policies," the party said.

“We welcome her clear decision to repeal the 1972 Act, that article 50 negotiations are to be launched by March 2017 and that Remainers will have to accept the people’s referendum decision. Ukip campaigning position is again vindicated and replicated.”

*This article was edited on October 3rd, 2016