TEN PRIMARIES and caucuses in today’s Super Tuesday elections could determine whether Mitt Romney, who has won seven of 12 states so far, finally emerges as the definitive front runner in the Republican nomination process, or if the mutually destructive bickering that has marked the campaign so far will drag on.
An opinion poll published by the Wall Street Journal/NBC News yesterday showed the strongest lead yet for Mr Romney, but also demonstrated rising confidence in the economy and President Barack Obama.
The same poll gave evidence of what Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducted the survey, called the “corrosive” effect of the campaign, with voter interest falling and negative views of Republican candidates rising.
Mr Romney now has the support of 38 per cent of Republican voters nationally; Mr Santorum 32 per cent. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are tied for third place at 13 per cent.
But Mr Obama has reached a 50 per cent job approval rating, with only 42 per cent disapproving. He would defeat Mr Romney – who scores highest of the Republicans against him – with 50 per cent to Mr Romney’s 44 per cent. Perhaps most alarming for the Republicans, whose main argument was the sluggish economy, 57 per cent of Americans now believe “the worst is behind us”.
In a sign that the party establishment is rallying around Mr Romney, several prominent Republicans endorsed the former governor of Massachusetts in the past two days, including the House majority leader Eric Cantor, Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and former attorney general John Ashcroft. If Mr Romney wins Ohio today, House Speaker John Boehner, who is from Cincinnati, may throw in his support too.
No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio, and a Quinnipiac University poll published yesterday showed Mr Romney has flipped the odds against Mr Santorum there, repeating the pattern in the run-up to last week’s Michigan primary.
Mr Romney now leads in Ohio, with 34 per cent to Mr Santorum’s 31 per cent, but the outcome is within the margin of error. One week earlier, Mr Santorum led in Ohio by 36 per cent to 29 per cent for Mr Romney.
The turnaround is due in a large part to money. Mr Romney and the “Super Pac” that supports him have outspent Mr Santorum 10 to one in advertising in Ohio, at $1.8 million to $181,000.
Commentary tonight will focus on Ohio, where Mr Santorum has concentrated on less educated, blue collar workers and Mr Romney centred his efforts on more affluent voters.
Mr Santorum emphasised his plan to do away with tax on manufacturing, saying he would transform the “rust belt” into the “stainless steel belt”.
Mr Santorum is handicapped by poor organisation. He could win the popular vote in Ohio, but receive less delegates than Mr Romney because he is excluded from winning 18 of the state’s 66 delegates for failing to file the requisite documents.
Mr Santorum and Newt Gingrich did not qualify for the ballot in Virginia, where Mr Romney will doubtless defeat Ron Paul. Massachusetts, Vermont and Idaho are also likely wins for Mr Romney.
Mr Gingrich has a comfortable lead in polls in his home state of Georgia, which will accord 76 delegates – the highest number – today. “Just to be clear: I have to win Georgia, I think, to be credible in the race,” Mr Gingrich said.
Competition is keenest between Messrs Santorum and Gingrich in the “Bible Belt” states of Tennessee and Oklahoma, which Mr Santorum calls the “ground zero of the conservative movement”.
Mr Santorum was applauded when he attended a Baptist “mega-church” in Memphis on Sunday.
“We so desperately need for God to raise up godly people who will run for office,” the pastor said.