Britain's economy probably returned to growth in the third quarter of this year, but it is uncertain how strong any recovery will be, Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance was quoted as saying today.
"When we get the figures for the third quarter, we may see some growth has returned to the economy," Mr Sentance said in an interview with the
Northern Echopublished today.
"That is a reasonable expectation, but I think there is bound to be uncertainty about how strong the recovery is going to be," he told the newspaper.
Mr Sentance's comments echoed those of BoE Governor Mervyn King yesterday, who noted that the strength of any upturn depended on how bank lending here and activity in other countries panned out over the coming months.
Britain's economy shrank by 0.7 per cent in the three months to June - a vast improvement on the 2.4 per cent decline in the first three months of this year and recent activity surveys signal a further improvement.
But policymakers are worried that the large degree of slack in the economy will mean any recovery will be slow and bear down on inflation - a big factor in the BoE's decision to increase its quantitative easing programme last month.
"We have to be wary of thinking everything will improve overnight - it is going to take time for employment and investment to recover," Mr Sentance said.
"I think the broader picture is that things have stabilised and confidence is improving, and that has transferred into a more sustained recovery as we go into the next year."
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