Anyone with long experience of the peace process will tell you that logic is a very poor guide when trying to work out what people will do next.
Logic suggests the IRA should hand over a few weapons and a couple of pounds of Semtex as a show of good faith, so that direct rule could be rescinded and the power-sharing institutions restored. The farther one is from the problem, the easier it seems.
But theory is grey: the tree of life is green. Any act with connotations of surrender would instantly set off a maelstrom of emotion in the republican community. The fear is that, overnight, at least half of the Provisional IRA would regroup under the banner of the "Real IRA", which would then have the resources and the right political environment for restarting its campaign of violence.
The Sinn Fein leaders, who are already under constant security guard, would find their lives in imminent danger. There is also a serious question mark as to whether a token gesture would be enough any more: many unionists would be looking for a lot more, and it might not be possible for Mr Trimble and his colleagues to re-enter the power-sharing coalition which went into the deep-freeze last Friday.
Logic also suggests that for the unionists to put the peace process in jeopardy and risk a return to the violence of the past 30 years by insisting on a surrender gesture that the IRA could probably never make is short-sighted in the extreme. But here, too, emotion rules.
The driving force behind unionist policy in recent weeks has not apparently been any logical programme to achieve a better life for all in Northern Ireland, but a feeling deep in the psyche of their community that the "other side" had been winning all the concessions and "now it's our turn".
As on most occasions when emotion overwhelms logic, the demise of the Good Friday experiment after only 72 days was messy and unedifying. Recrimination on all sides has been going on since Friday evening and, as Gay Byrne might have put it, there is a demon for everybody in the audience.
If bashing the Brits is your particular pleasure, then the Northern Secretary will be a tempting target. His critics say he allowed himself to be intimidated by the unionists into a premature and unwise suspension order.
They claim he knew well in advance that a favourable report was coming from Gen. de Chastelain, but that instead of marking time he panicked.
That is not the view from British government sources, who insist that Mr Mandelson did not know what the general was about to deliver, and that even if he had, it would not have been sufficient to justify further delay on the suspension order. Castle Buildings has its own brand of logic: Trimble had to be saved, therefore a temporary suspension was unavoidable.
The Ulster Unionist Party is under attack from nationalist opinion, newly radicalised in the wake of Friday's decision. In nationalist eyes, the unionists were never serious about implementing the Good Friday pact and pulled the plug the first chance they got.
Meanwhile, don't mention Dublin to a Sinn Fein member unless you are prepared to withstand a stream of invective about double-crossing weaklings who could and should have used their clout to stay Mandelson's hand.
There will never be an agreed version of last Friday's events between the Northern Secretary and Sinn Fein. No public record is available of what Mr Adams told Mr Mandelson and Mr Trimble that day. Perhaps republicans did not really believe the suspension would go ahead, which may explain why the Adams statement heralding an IRA breakthrough was issued so late.
It must have been particularly wounding for republicans when Bill Clinton, who has so often been a dream president from their point of view, publicly criticised their timing. The White House could not understand why the republicans apparently could not get their act together in time.
It is probably true that if the second de Chastelain report was ready to be made public in, say, the early afternoon, Dublin would have had to pull out all the stops to halt the suspension.
Republican brinkmanship or London-Glengall Street conspiracy? You pays your money and you takes your choice. As in the past, the pieces have to be picked up and some effort made to get the show back on the road.
Mr Cowen will almost certainly be arriving from a meeting in Brussels for a discussion with the Northern Secretary in Belfast this afternoon, reflecting the urgency with which he views the situation. He had a long conversation by telephone with Mr Mandelson on Saturday and will continue to press the case today for a rapid restoration of the devolved institutions.
His emphasis will be political, not legalistic, although he could in theory use his legal training to question the basis on which the suspension was carried out. The British government is well aware of the particular pressures Dublin is under at the moment but is most unlikely to forget unionist concerns either, since it sees itself as having a responsibility to view the situation "in the round".
The two ministers have some grounds for encouragement from the fact that no new preconditions - for example, linking participation in an executive with retention of the RUC's name and badge - were imposed on the UUP leadership at the Waterfront Hall last Saturday.
There was also some very positive language in the latest de Chastelain report which could be built upon, according to Dublin. Senior unionists of moderate disposition are still listening to the IRA, although they remain confused as to what precise message P. O'Neill is trying to get across.