CHINA: A smooth transition of power to Hu Jintao would be a big step forward in making China more democratic, writes Clifford Coonan, in Beijing.
Speculation is growing that China's former conservative leader, Jiang Zemin, may soon step down from his powerful position as head of the army to complete the handover process to his reform-minded successor as president, Hu Jintao.
A smooth completion of the succession from Mr Jiang to Mr Hu would mean a significant step forward in making China more democratic and open and would also ease tensions about Hong Kong and Taiwan.
But in the world of smoke and mirrors that is Chinese Communist Party power politics, forecasting whether Mr Jiang will or won't step down is a murky call.
Mr Jiang (78) is trying to retain power and influence against Mr Hu (61), who replaced him as party chief in 2002 and as president in 2003 in the first truly bloodless leadership succession in the history of China's Communist Party, which took power in 1949.
But Mr Jiang held on to leadership of the army, leaving the succession unfinished. Mr Jiang's late predecessor, Deng Xiaoping, also stayed on as chairman of the military committee for two years until 1989 after relinquishing supreme power.
Mr Hu must rely on Mr Jiang resigning from his post at a key meeting of the Communist Party elite's 198-member central committee in two weeks.
But some China-watchers believe he will not go.
Mr Jiang is said to be unhappy with Mr Hu's handling of the economy and has made his feelings known in subtle ways.
Mr Jiang and his allies in the country's economic powerhouse, Shanghai, are blamed with blocking reforms and are seen as hardline on Taiwan and Hong Kong.
The former leader is also keen to secure his political legacy alongside the great leaders of Chinese communism, which means stepping down may not be an option yet.
"The consensus assumption in Beijing's political circles is still that the 78-year-old patriarch will serve out his full five-year term, that is, until the 17th Party Congress in late 2007," said one analyst.
"If anything, Jiang and members of his Shanghai Faction have been more active than before - and that they are flexing their muscles. By this time, even junior and inexperienced cadres know Jiang is consumed with illusions about his own political immortality," he said.
This is Chinese Communist Party politics at its knottiest and the political tussle at the top echelon of the party has been building up for some time.
Citing two sources close to the leadership, the New York Times this week reported that Mr Jiang told a meeting of senior officials that he planned to step down.
For his part, in his nearly two years in power, Mr Hu has succeeded in presenting himself as a man of the people and in establishing a power base, but he still does not have the muscle to challenge Mr Jiang head on.
Despite the tensions, analysts doubt the rivalry between the two men will spill over into a public face-off anytime soon but there have been a few discreet digs.
During the recent celebration of Deng Xiaoping's 100th anniversary, Mr Hu pointedly praised Mr Deng for abolishing the practice of party leaders staying in power until death and explicitly mentioned Mr Jiang three times.
Analysts read Mr Hu's speech as a not-so-veiled hint to Mr Jiang to follow in his predecessor's footsteps.
The Communist Party has held three plenums of the central committee since its 16th party congress in 2002 and they are the kind of meetings that allow for personnel reshuffles, which is why the debate is happening now.
Mr Jiang, probably China's most influential politician in the last 15 years, would be in power for longer than Deng if he stayed on another year, which analysts said could be risky.
Mr Jiang is said to be unpopular with the military - some senior army officers have discreetly expressed concern about "divided leadership".
