THERE is "no logical reason" for Iraq to try and draw Israel into its latest conflict with the United States, Mr Moshe Arens, the former Israeli defence minister, reasoned yesterday, writes David Horovitz from Jerusalem.
Five-and-a-half years ago, when Saddam Hussein lobbed 39 Scud missiles at Israel, Mr Arens recalled, the Iraqi dictator had been seeking to turn the Gulf War into an Israeli-Arab conflict - to woo Arab states out of the Desert Storm coalition. This time, it is one-on-one, the US against Iraq, and there is thus no mileage for Saddam in targeting Israel.
Mr Arens's argument is impeccable. But for Israelis, never quite persuaded that logic is the determining factor in Saddam's actions, television footage of American and Iraqi forces again in conflict has a disturbing, deja vu, quality. And while every Israeli official, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu down, took time out yesterday to issue messages of reassurance, that did not stop the jitters.
Sure, we're tense," said a young woman pushing a baby buggy through the streets of Ramat Gan, the Tel Aviv suburb that bore the brunt of the January- February 1991 Scuds. "I thought I'd come here just to be on the safe side," added another woman, waiting in a queue for gas masks.
Mr Netanyahu should have been holding unprecedented talks yesterday with the Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat. But as aides haggled over last- minute obstacles, and the meeting was tentatively rescheduled for today, the prime minister was briefed by the American ambassador on the situation. He emerged to announce that, for now, there was no danger of the conflict "spilling over in our direction".
Against that, and Mr Arens's logic, Israelis read an analysis in their morning papers by Latif Rashid, a London-based Kurdish leader, who asserted that "Israel should be the first country in the world to worry about Iraq's invasion of the Kurdish territories," that Saddam would not hesitate to hit Israel, and that he had an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons.
In 1991, Israelis knew little of Saddam's true military capabilities. They put faith in their gas masks, in the Patriot missiles deployed to intercept the Scuds, and in army assurances that Iraq had no non-conventional warheads. This time, many more are aware that the masks offer only limited protection, that the Patriots were useless, and that Sad dam does have chemical and biological warheads for his Scuds.