Huge upheaval but little change

Last February’s election shook up the political landscape, with Fianna Fáil eclipsed by Fine Gael and Labour, but the bailout programme’s straitjacket meant economic policy was little changed

THE FACE of Irish politics was transformed in 2011 but, for all that, continuity rather than change marked the policy of the new Government that picked up the pieces after the crushing defeat of Fianna Fáil in the election last February.

While Fianna Fáil’s loss of power was entirely predictable, the scale of the defeat was astonishing. The party was not only tumbled off the perch it had held since 1932 as the biggest party, it lost three-quarters of its seats and ended up in third place with just 20 TDs.

Fine Gael took over the top spot for the first time since the party was founded in 1933, and it even came within a whisker of winning an overall majority.

The Labour Party emerged as the second biggest party for the first time in its history just a year before its centenary. Sinn Féin had its best election to date, winning 14 seats, while the United Left Alliance won five seats and there were 14 Independents of various hues elected.

The scale of the changes is still difficult to comprehend. Fianna Fáil lost an astonishing 59 seats while Fine Gael gained 25 and the Labour Party gained 16. The Green Party lost all six of its seats, while Sinn Féin gained 10 and Independents secured 14.

Given the Dáil arithmetic, it was inevitable that Fine Gael and Labour would renew old acquaintance in coalition but what was unprecedented was that they would be the biggest parties in the Dáil. There were some voices in Labour urging it to remain in Opposition in an attempt to force Fine Gael to seek support elsewhere, but they were very much a minority.

Still, with the biggest party in the State a member of the Christian Democratic European Peoples’ Party in the European Parliament, and the second biggest a member of the Socialist Group, Ireland is closer than it has ever been to a right-left divide in politics.

Despite the dramatic changes in the party pecking order, the broad thrust of government policy remained the same after the election as the Coalition set about implementing the agenda laid down in the EU-IMF programme. How that will impact on party fortunes in the future is a moot point.

It is hard to believe it now, as it seems a lifetime ago, but the year opened with rumours of a leadership heave against taoiseach Brian Cowen. To pre-empt his critics, Cowen put down a motion of confidence in himself and won, even though then minister for foreign affairs Micheál Martin mounted a challenge.

There then followed a botched attempt at a Cabinet reshuffle which ultimately resulted in Cowen resigning as Fianna Fáil leader and an election being called for February 25th. After the helter-skelter of the previous three months, the election campaign itself was a relatively sedate affair. Fine Gael kicked off its campaign with a five-point plan and refused to be drawn into detailed arguments with the government over its economic strategy for the years ahead.

The tactic worked like a dream and Enda Kenny became the star of the campaign. Dubbed the “Val Doonican of Irish politics” – an overnight success after 35 years in the business – he criss-crossed the country campaigning in every constituency.

For Eamon Gilmore, the election was a different experience. He performed well in all the TV debates but the Labour campaign did not capture the public imagination in the way Fine Gael’s did. Possibly lulled into a false sense of confidence by media talk of a “Gilmore gale”, the Labour campaign was not as well organised or focused as Fine Gael’s.

As the opinion polls showed support for Fine Gael and Kenny rising and that for Labour and Gilmore declining, Labour began to attack its potential coalition partner. Fine Gael refused to get involved in a row and started to dream of an overall majority for the first time in the party’s history.

FIANNA FÁIL WASin a unique position, fighting the election campaign with Martin as leader while Cowen remained in the taoiseach's office. The party kicked off well enough with a hastily assembled manifesto but as the polls began to come in, it was clear that there was no revival in sight.

Brian Hayes of Fine Gael summed up the position well in the middle of the campaign. “We are feasting over the carcass of Fianna Fáil. This isn’t an election between us and Fianna Fáil. It’s between Fine Gael and Labour,” he said.

Fianna Fáil’s coalition partners, the Greens, were in an even worse position. Whether the party could hang on to one or two seats, or face a total wipeout, was the issue. While Gormley and his cabinet colleague Eamon Ryan campaigned hard, they were in an impossible position.

A number of left-wing groups came together as the United Left Alliance and put in a fighting campaign. Socialist MEP Joe Higgins was the group’s biggest star but there were a number of other experienced left-wing campaigners who were presented with an ideal opportunity to make a breakthrough.

Independents also proliferated. Long-time senator Shane Ross ran a storming campaign in Dublin South, while builder/developer Mick Wallace, who owed the banks €40 million, did something similar in Wexford.

As the campaign drew to a close the big question was whether Fine Gael might pull off the impossible dream and win an overall majority or, whether the long expected outcome of a Fine Gael-Labour coalition would become a reality.

In the event, Fine Gael came close but not close enough to form a single-party government, and it had no difficulty negotiating a programme for government with Labour.

What did prove more difficult for them was living up to many of the election promises they had made. Burning bank bondholders was one big commitment that went by the board as soon as the reality of power dawned and many others went the same way in the months that followed as the size of the crisis in the public finances made itself clear to the Coalition.

The public did not seem all that disappointed or surprised and the ratings of the new Government held up remarkably well through 2011, at least until the Budget was unveiled earlier this month.

How the Coalition will fare for the rest of its term will depend on the economy. If Kenny can keep his promise and restore the country’s economic sovereignty by 2016, the changes wrought by the 2011 election may prove to be permanent, but there is no knowing how the country will be faring in five years’ time.