How ‘truly in sight’ can the pandemic’s end really be?

“The end is now truly in sight,” said the Taoiseach in his televised announcement of at least six more weeks of lockdown, using the same phrase employed by the UK prime minister the night before.

The problem for Micheál Martin is that his “end” of the Covid-19 pandemic looks considerably further away than Boris Johnson’s at this moment.

It may turn out that the Taoiseach’s large dollop of caution will be justified by future virus trends, either here or in the UK. But his announcement, well-leaked for weeks beforehand and devoid of any surprises, will do little to dispel the national gloom.

The justification for the Government’s softly-softly approach arises from the rise of B117, the variant that originated in – of all places – the UK. This more transmissible variant is “equivalent to a new virus”, as Martin put it, and has “changed the dynamic” of infection control.

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It certainly changed the dynamic of Government excuses after Christmas, when its arrival in Ireland came in handy for Ministers trying to explain the record surge in cases over the holiday period.

B117 has been dominant here for about a month, yet still cases and other indicators are coming down, albeit under Level-5 lockdown. As the Taoiseach noted, our progress has been among the best in Europe, though from a high level. The 575-case level recorded on Tuesday was the second-lowest daily figure in nine weeks.

Schools and safety

Tuesday was typical of almost any day in this pandemic, with those who died ranging in age from 55 to 104 years and the median age at 84. Regardless of the marginal additional contribution made by variants, Covid-19 still strikes hardest against the oldest and most vulnerable.

The drawn-out reopening of education seems at odds with the mantra that schools are safe places. The Government professes its concern relates to activities around schools, but if that were the case, wouldn’t it close playgrounds?

Ireland was already an outlier in Europe in terms of easing restrictions on education. Some or all schools are open in France, Germany, Sweden, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Spain.

Reopening schools will inevitably give rise to increased transmission but to what extent remains uncertain in the new context. This effect could have been offset through counterbalancing measures, for example, by limiting alcohol sales. The Government chose not to do this, and neither has it done much to introduce rapid testing.

With about 5 per cent of the population having received a dose of Covid-19 vaccine, we are a long way from inoculating all the vulnerable, who probably amount to one-third of the population. Arguably, this factor better explains the difference in approach on either side of the Irish Sea.

Still traumatised by 2,000 deaths since Christmas, and desperate to avoid having to follow this lockdown with another one, the Government finds itself trammelled by the EU’s disastrous vaccine authorisation and purchasing strategy.

Costs of crisis

Almost two more months is a very long time for many parents to have to wait for their children’s return to the classroom. The extension of pandemic support payments props up the fiction that this crisis has no real cost.

The latest polling for the Government shows levels of stress, sadness, fear, loneliness and frustration are at record levels in the pandemic, and rising quickly. Feelings of anger and despair are also increasing.

A record 16 per cent of people now think the Government’s response to the pandemic is too extreme – still well behind the 40 per cent who say it is insufficient. Almost one-third says it is trying to return to normal too slowly, the highest level since the pandemic started.

All this points to the likelihood of more people ignoring the restrictions we have been living under for months. In particular, the 5km rule – which is based on the crude use of mobility as a proxy for contact – will be tested more and more as spring comes.

The problem with basing your policy on the uncertain threat posed by a new variant is that when the next dangerous variant mutation comes along, you may have to react the same, particularly if it threatens to compromise the effectiveness of vaccines. In which case, the end hoped for by the Taoiseach mightn’t be as near as he suggests.