ANALYSIS:The combined Opposition has 81 TDs in the Dáil as against 84 for the Government, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE GOVERNMENT’S majority in the Dáil, which was nine after the general election two years ago, has now been reduced to three, following the weekend byelection results.
The victory of George Lee for Fine Gael in Dublin South and Independent Maureen O’Sullivan in Dublin Central has given the combined Opposition a total of 81 TDs in the Dáil as against 84 for the Government.
After the 2007 election then taoiseach Bertie Ahern negotiated a coalition with the Green Party and did a deal with three Independent TDs which gave the Government 87 Dáil votes as against 78 for the combined Opposition.
Fianna Fáil won 78 seats in the election and this number went up by one with the return of Beverley Flynn, who had been elected as an Independent in Mayo after her expulsion from the party.
With John O’Donoghue being elected to the Ceann Comhairle’s position, that left the party with 78 votes in the Dáil.
Since then Wicklow TD Joe Behan has resigned from the party in protest at public spending cuts while former minister Seamus Brennan died last year.
That left Fianna Fáil with 76 seats and its failure to win either byelection has left it with the same strength in the Dáil.
There has been no change in the representation of the Green Party since 2007 but there have been changes to the group of Independents supporting the Government.
In 2007, five TDs were elected as Independents but that number was reduced to four when Ms Flynn joined Fianna Fáil.
Three of the other Independents – Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry and Finian McGrath – did a deal to support the Fianna Fáil-Green coalition with only Tony Gregory remaining aloof.
Mr McGrath pulled out of the deal over the cutbacks last year, leaving only Mr Healy-Rae and Mr Lowry still supporting the Government.
Meanwhile, the Independent group got a new member in Joe Behan, and the election of Maureen O’Sullivan to the vacancy created by the death of Mr Gregory means there are now three Independents who do not support the Government.
The main Opposition party, Fine Gael, has seen its strength increase to 52 with the election of Mr Lee.
That means that in a tight vote the Government is only assured of a majority of 84 votes to 81. If Mr Lowry throws his support behind the Opposition at any stage, that margin will be cut to a bare majority of 83 to 82.
The Fine Gael motion of no confidence this week will test the strength of the Government’s position in the Dáil.