EU likely to concede Britain on beef

REPORTS of new cases of CJD in Britain at the weekend set the scene uncomfortably for another round today of fraught EU farm agriculture minister talks on the lifting of the export ban on British beef.

Although the new cases were certainly infected well before measures were taken to end feeding sheep remains to cattle - and, arguably, therefore should have no bearing on a scientific discussion of eradication measures - Britain's partners will be all too aware that such distinctions are lost on a nervous public.

Indeed this is the nub of the argument between Britain and the 14. The British Agriculture Minister, Mr Douglas Hogg, will insist in Luxembourg that confidence can be restored by a declaration from the EU that all is now safe - on scientific grounds.

Others, privately admitting the British scientific case may be justified, say that confidence is a more elusive, psychological notion which needs time to be nurtured, and, most importantly, a sense that radical measures are being taken.

Irish farm leaders say the distinction lies in convincing the public that the policy is one of "eradication rather than reduction."

The meeting, which cannot take a decision beyond sending a political signal to the crucial Standing Veterinary Committee, is thus unlikely to move beyond the most limited concessions to Britain.

On Friday British sources were playing down expectations, and indeed, the ministers may not even have a formal British proposal for additional selective slaughter measures on which to pass judgement.

Mr Hogg made it clear in last Thursday's letter to the Agriculture Commissioner, Mr Franz Fischler in which tie suggested a cull of 41,000 of the most vulnerable animals, that he would only table the proposals if there was a quid pro quo on the export ban. The Commission warned it could not accept preconditions.

The British proposals involve a tracking down of animals from herds significantly affected in the early 1990s by BSE - the definition of such herds is a key difficulty - and selective culling or movement restrictions them.

In addition to measures already in place, agreed at the April meeting of agriculture ministers, they are to remove from the food chain cows over 30 months tea step up research and veterinary inspections, and to tighten procedures for the rendering and disposal of animal waste. Britain has already submitted two reports on its implementation of such measures.

A British spokesman argued on Friday that because of the measures taken in the early 1990s to remove animal bone and matter from animal feedstuffs, the new incidences of BSE in the British herd have already been in sharp decline. In the peak year of 1992 40,000 cases were notified, while last year they were down to 15,000 and this year are expected to fall to 8,000 cases.

Projections suggest, he claimed, that next year the figure could be as low as 3,000 and the new selective slaughter policy could reduce that to 2,000. Because the policy is targeted at those most likely to be infected, further slaughtering would produce progressively lower returns.

Today, there may be an attempt to give the British some comfort by sending a signal to the Standing Veterinary Committee that ministers will accept the lifting of the export ban on tallow and gelatin, which the British say is threatening up to £5 billion in pharmaceutical exports.

The Commission has already indicated its view that this part of the ban is not justified.

Today is also likely to see the beginnings of an attempt by the ministers from the other member states to spell out what further measures they would regard as necessary - a difficult task which they have studiously avoided until now, as it is capable of creating a political storm in Britain.

The Minister for Agriculture, Mr Yates, will this morning be testing the water with other delegations. The meeting will also see another attempt to crack the long running reform of the EU's fruit and vegetable sector.

A menu not for the fainthearted.