Further enlargement of the union is a minefield for the politicians involved, writes JAMIE SMYTH, European Correspondent
OLLI REHN, EU enlargement commissioner, has warned politicians and the public not to blame EU enlargement policy for the economic and institutional problems facing the Union.
On the fifth anniversary of the “big bang” enlargement, when 10 new member states joined the EU club on May 1st, 2004, Rehn says closing the door to new members risks destabilising the volatile Balkans. “I can only appeal that we should not shake the steady process of stabilisation we have achieved in southeast Europe, remembering the horrible 1990s Balkan wars especially in Bosnia and Kosovo,” says Finland’s nominee to the European Commission, who manages the accession talks with Croatia and Turkey.
Talks with both candidates have ground to a halt in recent months. A border dispute between Slovenia and Croatia has prompted Ljubljana to block the opening of new negotiating chapters – the name given to the 35 legislative areas that countries must adopt to comply with EU law.
Turkey’s accession process has been blighted by a bilateral dispute with Cyprus over customs that harks back to the division of the island, and French and German opposition to allowing a poor, populous Muslim country into the union.
But there is a much wider credibility problem facing enlargement policy because of a major shift in public and political opinion in many old member states against further EU enlargement, following the “big bang” enlargement of 2004.
This “enlargement fatigue” was highlighted in the spring 2009 Eurobarometer survey, which found 54 per cent of Luxembourgers, 53 per cent of Belgians, 52 per cent of Austrians and 48 per cent of Germans felt that enlarging from 15 to 27 members since 2004 had weakened the union.
“The political landscape has changed dramatically and the current economic crisis means any thought of extending EU membership to Ukraine or Turkey is off the agenda,” says Hugo Brady, of the Centre for European Reform (CER). “There is a feeling the EU must look after itself,” he says, citing unrest in Britain – a traditional supporter of enlargement – where workers recently took to the streets to demand “British jobs for British workers”.
The angry protests at the Lindsey oil refinery in Lincolnshire against cheaper labour from other EU states taking local jobs revived bitter memories in Brussels over widespread fears generated before and after enlargement in 2004 regarding the “Polish plumber”.
Campaigners against the EU constitutional treaty in France successfully tapped into concerns of job displacement by cheap labour from the new member states, which helped to torpedo the treaty in a referendum in May 2005. This defeat, and the No vote in the Netherlands a few days later, prompted major soul-searching among politicians in both countries, who have since adopted a more sceptical view towards enlargement.
“The Dutch are particularly stringent on enlargement,” says one EU diplomat. “This was evident when they cited the Lindsey oil refinery protests at a recent EU meeting as a reason to block consideration of Montenegro’s application to join the Union, not the British minister,” says one EU official.
Surveys show “enlargement fatigue” and public fears about immigration played only a minor role in the Irish public’s rejection of the Lisbon Treaty last year. But French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel have both reacted to the defeat of Lisbon by threatening to block any further enlargement.
“It is certain that as long as we have not solved the institutional problem, the question of enlargement is stopped de jure or de facto,” said Sarkozy, who argues that under the current rules the EU cannot function effectively with 27 member states.
Dr Merkel’s Christian Democrats party (CDU) argues in its manifesto for the upcoming European Parliament elections that it “has required great efforts” for the EU to absorb new members. The party calls for a “phase of consolidation, during which a consolidation of the EU’s values and institutions should take priority over further EU enlargement”.
Britain, Sweden and almost all new member states disagree, and fear that linking the two could provoke a dangerous situation in the event of a second No vote to Lisbon. The European Commission also argues that it is working just fine with 27 commissioners. “There is no need to link these two . . . It is important we all refrain from scapegoating enlargement or using it as a pawn in a broader chess game,” says Rehn, who admits there are powerful political forces behind the “No Lisbon, no enlargement” slogan.
But even an Irish Yes vote and the implementation of the treaty will not open the floodgates to new members, says Daniel Gros of the Centre for European Policy Studies. “A lot of the opposition to Turkey and the potential candidates in the Balkan region is cultural rather than economic. There are also major concerns about corruption and crime in these countries, and no one wants a repeat of the situation with Bulgaria,” says Gros.
The commission has strongly criticised the failure of Bulgaria to address widespread corruption in successive reports, and last year took the unprecedented step of freezing hundreds of millions of euro in EU funds. It has also recently toughened up the accession process by setting new benchmarks for candidates before they can join the EU.
“We’ve learnt lessons from the previous rounds of enlargement and now apply conditionality rigorously,” says Rehn, who stresses the hugely positive experience of the 2004 enlargement that brought former communist countries back to the centre of Europe.
Despite the growing scepticism towards enlargement, the list of countries applying to join the Union is lengthening. Albania became the latest Balkan state to lodge an application for membership this week. Iceland’s new government is mulling over whether to apply for a “fast track” accession process offered by Rehn, who speculates that it may be possible for the Nordic country to join the Union together with Croatia as early as 2011.
Whether Turkey or the volatile Balkan states can overcome the malaise surrounding accession is another matter entirely. But no one is predicting any short cuts for them.