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Dublin housing shortage 'to continue'

The shortfall of housing supply within the Dublin area is set to continue despite a record level of house construction in 2006…

The shortfall of housing supply within the Dublin area is set to continue despite a record level of house construction in 2006, according to the latest AIB housing market report.

The report said that the late 1990s saw a marked downturn in the percentage of total housing completions in the Dublin area compared to the proportion of the total population that resides in the area.

Although there has been a record level of housing completions in 2006 - estimated by the Department of the Environment at 93,419, this "has done little to rectify this situation," it said .

The report notes that completions within the Dublin area increased by 8 per cent last year compared to the 15.4 per cent increase for the country as a whole.

So less than 20 per cent of completions were in the Dublin area while, according to census data, some 28 per cent of the population lived in Dublin at April 2006.

AIB predicts the level of completions to fall back to 85,000 this year, with a further decline in output to 78,000 units in 2008.

It observes commencement notices were issued for 65,517 housing units in the first ten months of 2006, a decline of 2.4 per cent compared to the same period in 2005.

AIB also said the decline in output is further illustrated by data from the Central Statistic Offices that indicate that the number of planning permissions granted peaked in the first half of 2005.

But given the apparent buildup of a Dublin supply shortfall, the downturn in housebuilding envisaged over the next couple of years is more likely to take place outside the Dublin region, the report said.