Bush tacitly concedes Iraq miscalculations

US: The President's efforts to chart a way forward have not silenced his critics, reports Conor O'Clery.

US: The President's efforts to chart a way forward have not silenced his critics, reports Conor O'Clery.

Americans looking for an exit strategy in President George Bush's speech on Iraq got instead a strong hint that even more US troops will have to be sent there to control widening violence in the days ahead.

At this point in the conflict, Mr Bush said, US commanders had estimated that 115,000 troops would be sufficient, but "given the recent increase in violence, we'll maintain our troop level at the current 138,000 as long as necessary", and if the generals need more, "I'll send them."

The candid admission that the Pentagon had understimated troop levels was as close as Mr Bush came to making a clean break and conceding that huge miscalculations had been made in planning for post-invasion Iraq.

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He also acknowledged what he called the "disgraceful conduct" of American soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison, which he said would be demolished with Iraqi government approval and replaced with a modern maximum-security prison.

This got the loudest applause from the military audience during Mr Bush's 33-minute speech at the US Army War College in Pennsylvania on Monday evening which was billed as a major address on the way forward in Iraq.

After a year of policy failures, the tone of the address was still defiant and resolute, but nothing as triumphal as his "mission accomplished" speech a year ago after the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

Since then the number of American soldiers to die in Iraq has increased almost sixfold, and Mr Bush warned worse was worse to come. "As the Iraqi people move closer to governing themselves, the terrorists are likely to become more active and more brutal," he said. "There are difficult days ahead, and the way forward may sometimes appear chaotic . . . There's likely to be more violence before the transfer of sovereignty, and after the transfer of sovereignty."

Mr Bush did not spell out how he would convince other nations to help secure Iraq after June 30th, other than that he would "thank" Nato allies at the Nato summit in Istanbul for providing 17,000 troops under the British and Polish flags.

This drew sharp criticism from Democratic Senator Joe Biden, who recently met the President to persuade him that the only course was to mount a major push to win the agreement of the 26-member Nato alliance to take control of coalition forces in Iraq.

"He didn't say who's going to send more troops. He didn't say who's going to send more money," Mr Biden said angrily, adding that army officers had told him it would take three years to train an Iraqi army to take over security.

Senator John Kerry muted his criticism of the President: the Democratic challenger has been careful to avoid making Iraq too sharp a bipartisan issue, letting the setbacks on their own diminish Mr Bush's stature as commander-in-chief and overwhlemn the good economic news.

What was important now, Mr Kerry said, was for the President "to genuinely reach out to our allies so the United States doesn't have to continue to go it alone."

Spain, the Dominican Republic and Honduras have pulled out of the coalition force in Iraq, and many countries, led by France and Russia, say they will not join an international force under any circumstances.

The former secretary of state, Ms Madeleine Albright, doubted that the President had "the credibility to bring about the international co-operation he is calling for." Some Republicans also voiced their unhappiness with Mr Bush's speech.

Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, faulted the President for having failed to offer solid plans for Iraq's future.

Republican Senator Susan Collins said even stalwart supporters of the decision to invade Iraq now questioned "how we make the transition to a peaceful and democratic country".

In his speech, which the network channels did not broadcast live, the President outlined a five-point plan reciting the tasks that lay ahead. The goal, he said, was "a free, representative government that serves its people and fights on their behalf, and the sooner this goal is achieved, the sooner our job will be done." Failure in Iraq would be "a cause for killers to rejoice" and launch more attacks, he warned.

This argument is critical to convince Americans that the war was worth the loss of American lives and prestige. This is now a primary political goal for the President, whose ratings have fallen in the run-up to the November election.

Mr Bush will meet world leaders at the G8 summit in early June and at the Nato summit three weeks later. He plans more prime-time speeches to keep Americans informed of his progress in broadening international support, without which, many critics say, the White House cannot claim to have an exit strategy with mission accomplished.