EU: The European Commission looks set to recommend that Romania and Bulgaria join the EU in January 2007 despite concerns over corruption and the slow pace of reform.
Enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn gave a relatively upbeat assessment last night to MEPs of the progress made by both states in meeting the EU membership criteria.
"Both Bulgaria and Romania have shown determination to undertake necessary remaining reforms," Mr Rehn told the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee ahead of the publication of a commission recommendation on EU entry on May 16th.
Mr Rehn said Romania had made significant progress towards reforming the judicial system and fighting corruption. But he issued a warning to Bulgaria on the slow pace of judicial reform and the need to fight organised crime and high-level corruption.
"All in all, the balance sheet of Bulgaria's judiciary reform is not yet satisfactory. Accountability, transparency and efficiency of her judiciary system must be enhanced," said Mr Rehn.
Under the terms of their accession treaties, Romania and Bulgaria will join the EU on either January 2007 or 2008 depending on their reforms.
The upcoming commission assessment comes as the EU suffers a severe bout of "enlargement fatigue", with states such as France and Germany questioning how far the borders of Europe can extend. Both these states have decided not to ratify the accession treaties of Romania and Bulgaria until after the May 16th report is published. But few EU diplomats believe that the commission will recommend delaying entry for either state, even with ongoing concerns over corruption.
In his speech to MEPs, Mr Rehn raised the prospect of imposing safeguards on the states to ensure they continued with reform efforts.
"A safeguard clause could say, for example, that the EU might not recognise decisions made in a Bulgarian or Romanian court," says Gergana Noutcheva, an analyst with the Centre for European Policy Studies, who specialises in EU enlargement issues.
"This would have a political and reputation cost for the countries concerned."
Safeguard clauses have not been invoked in any other EU enlargement. However, EU analysts believe they would reflect the current climate of "enlargement fatigue" felt in many states.
Once the commission makes its recommendation, EU states will make a decision in June on whether Romania and Bulgaria should join in 2007.
Member states are expected to rubber-stamp the decision of the commission. However, the postponement clause written into Bulgaria's accession treaty means that all member states would have to vote in favour of postponing its accession to the EU at the June European Council to prevent it from joining the union. Romania's accession treaty stipulates that just a qualified majority of states would have to vote in favour of postponement to delay its entry to the EU for a further year until January 2008.
The tougher rules for Romania reflect the fact that it lagged Bulgaria in reforms back in 2004 when its accession treaty was agreed. Since then Romania has leapfrogged Bulgaria and has currently met more of the membership criteria than its neighbour.