NOT for the first time the Central Bank seems to be behind the curve on when it comes to monitoring the housing market. Sellers were plunged into more gloom yesterday when the bank said its baseline scenario assumes a 55 per cent peak-to-trough fall in house prices between 2007 and 2013.

The reality is that a change of that dimension has already taken place – ask anyone who has managed to offload their home what they got, versus what it was worth in 2007.

Sure enough prices may fall further. The Bank outlines a worst case scenario as a drop of 62 per cent from peak-to-trough.

But buyers already know that they can offer 10 per cent, 20 per cent or even 30 per cent less than an asking price at present, and in many cases, clinch a deal.

However, the news is likely to unsettle first-time buyers who have an additional worry on their hands now.

Under the new programme for government, interest relief for first-time buyers is set to end in June.

Yes, this June.

The measure is part of an overall plan to ease the plight of homeowners in negative equity and in trouble with their mortgages.

This tax relief is likely to be redirected towards existing homeowners who, as first-time buyers, invested in a home in the boom years, specifically from 2004 and 2008.

This relief will be worth a maximum of €500 per month.

With the clock now ticking on the relief, young would-be buyers are likely to move swiftly to make a purchase in order to qualify for the tax concessions.

The maximum qualifiying interest amount for a first time couple is no less than €20,000. In each of the first two years they can avail of a 25 per cent interest relief – the equivalent of €5,000 annually. This reduces to €4,500 in years three, four and five, and €4,000 in years six and seven.

Frank Conway of Moneycoach.ie estimates that over a seven-year period a couple can avail of a maximum relief of €31,500.

Of course you could say there is still no rush for young buyers as they could see the same saving if prices continue to slip or if they are good at bargaining their way to a deal.

At the moment most sellers, particularly housebuilders with unsold stock, are giving discounts on demand.