The week in business: Irish import-export data and results

This Week December 16th

Monday
Indicators: Irish exports and imports (October); Euro zone composite, services and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash (December), labour-cost index and wage growth (third quarter); UK composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (December), industrial trends orders (December); German composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (December); US composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (December).
Meetings: European Central Bank conference on household finance and consumption (Central Bank of Ireland, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1).

On Monday and Tuesday, the European Central Bank will hold its biennial conference on household finance and consumption in Dublin. Organised in conjunction with the Central Bank of Ireland, it drives research on the implications of household accumulation of assets and debt, as well as consumption and saving behaviour.

It focuses on research that uses household-level data, with a special interest in the household finance and consumption survey.

This week's conference will be opened by Central Bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf while a lunchtime talk will be given by his predecessor Philip Lane, now of the ECB.

ECB holds rates at record low at Lagarde’s first meeting

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Saudi Aramco touches $2tn valuation on second day of trading

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Property prices rise at lowest level since economic recovery

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Glendalough Distillery investors to share €12m from stake sale

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The event will examine research on a variety of subjects drawing on data from different countries. This year it will include: an examination of consumer inflation expectations; housing costs based on the German boom; wealth effects on consumption during the sovereign debt crisis; and interest rates and the redistribution of nominal wealth in the euro zone.

Perhaps of particular interest in the Irish case will be a paper delivered on Tuesday regarding mortgage debt during the recession.

Looking at the drivers of the 2006-11 housing crash, it examines the effects on consumption and the ability of mortgage rate interventions to accelerate the recovery.

Tuesday
Results: FedEx.
Indicators: Euro zone balance of trade (October); UK unemployment (October), average earnings (October); US manufacturing and industrial production (November), economic optimism (December).
Meetings: Glenveagh Properties egm (A&L Goodbody, IFSC, Dublin 1).

Wednesday
Indicators: Euro zone inflation (November), construction output (October); UK inflation (November), PPI input and output (November), retail price index (November), distributive trades (December); German PPI (November), business climate, expectations and current conditions (December).
Meetings: ECB non-monetary policy meeting.

Thursday
Results: Accenture.
Indicators: Irish overseas travel (November); UK retail sales (November).
Meetings: ECB general council meeting; Bank of England interest rate decision.

Last August, at the height of the tourist season, the decline in UK tourists to Ireland continued to raise eyebrows (down 2.7 per cent compared to the previous year). Brexit and sterling were combining to further frustrate what has been a major east-west flow in visitors and tourist revenue. August saw a third decline over four monthly reports.

But then things changed. In September, UK visitor numbers increased by a notable 6 per cent and in October the numbers were up by 4.2 per cent to 336,400. On Thursday, the Central Statistics Office will release its November figures and there will be much crossing of industry fingers in the name of continued growth.

Of course the picture is always broader than just Britain. October showed a 2.5 per cent general increase in arrivals on the same month a year earlier, while September was up 2.1 per cent.

Last week, Ireland was named one of the top 10 most promising overseas destinations at the Golden Footprint Cultural Tourism Summit in China. That event, organised by Weibo, the Chinese version of Twitter, was attended by social influencers, travel journalists and travel professionals from across the country. Roll on 2020, albeit in the shadow of further Brexit disruption.

Friday
Results: Nike.
Indicators: Irish wholesale price index (November); Euro zone consumer confidence flash (December); UK consumer confidence (December), business investment (third quarter), GDP (third quarter), public sector net borrowing (November); German consumer confidence (January); US personal income and spending (November), GDP (third quarter), corporate profits (third quarter), personal consumption expenditure price index (November).