Record highs see venerable Dow Jones index mark its centenary in some style

THE Dow Jones industrial average marked its 100th anniversary yesterday, a major milestone for Wall Street that has seen dizzying…

THE Dow Jones industrial average marked its 100th anniversary yesterday, a major milestone for Wall Street that has seen dizzying climbs and crashes and now hopes to enter a golden era.

"It is the oldest and best known index. No matter how many indices are created, it's the one index written into every stock market lead report. When people read the Dow is up, they feel the economy is more expansive," said Mr William LeFevre, a senior market analyst at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum.

Mr LeFevre recalled his early professional days. "I started on Wall Street in June 1949, Harry S. Truman was president, the Dow was at 160 and it was the hottest summer in history."

Last Wednesday, the Dow closed at a record 5,778, though it backed off from the high towards the weekend.

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Mr LeFevre said the biggest turnover he saw on the floor was 14 million shares. The New York Stock Exchange's (NYSE) record volume of 653.16 million shares was set on December 15th, 1995.

Like the rest of the world, Wall Street and the Dow have endured some dramatic changes over the past century.

The index was created by Dow Jones & Co and first appeared on May 26th, 1896, consisting of 12 "smokestack" companies. Today, it has 30 components chosen as representative of the broad market and American industry.

While the index has been criticised for not being broad enough to represent the US stock market, it remains an enduring snapshot of the economy and a household name. The 30 huge stocks represent 10-12 per cent of gross domestic product.

"People can relate to it. It's easy to remember. They don't know where the S&P (Standard & Poor's) 500 is," said Mr Bob Stovall, president of Stovall/21st Advisers. Mr Stovall recalled the scars left on investor memories decades after the 1929 market crash, when the Dow plunged 69 points, or 24 per cent, from October 28th to October 29th.

"People were mesmerised with 1929... People talk now about 1987 (when the Dow plunged 22.6 per cent, on October 19th), but people had the 1929 crash in their minds for 25 years."

Analysts said the investor type has also changed.

Mr LeFevre said that when he started, most investors were from Main Street. "People gave it a shot and did research and bought stocks of companies that earned money and had new products".

"But in the 1970s, with various laws creating pools of money, it became institutions that were the investors. In the 1980s came options, and stocks became commodities and not shares of businesses," he said.

Analysts said the information age has wrought the most dramatic changes on Wall Street.

Mr LeFevre said that, in the 1950s and 1960s, as a trader on the floor of the NYSE he did not have computers. "I used a No. 2 pencil and paper and we had a lot of runners. It's such a difference between then and now with computerisation.

"Before computers, you'd go to where the selling was coming from" to learn what was happening, Mr LeFevre said. "Now, with (computer) screens, it's very rare for something to go on we don't know about. In the past, you could do an awful lot of damage with one minute's lead time with information," he said. Now, that time is measured in seconds.

But the increase in the amount of information and the swiftness of its transmission don't necessarily mean more accurate analyst predictions of what the market will do.

"The market does what it has to do to make the average guru look stupid," Mr Stovall said.

Analysts said the current bull market could run for a while.

Strong corporate profits, low interest rates and a slowly growing economy have helped fuel the bull market. Another major factor is the steady flow from baby boomers' 401(k) retirement funds into equities.

"We're entering a golden era. People are educated and understand common stocks and ownership and equity - not like the people who preceded them," Mr LeFevre said.