Coronavirus is not a black swan event for markets

A host of commentators have referred to the coronavirus outbreak as a black swan event for markets. Is it?

A black swan event is meant to be unforeseeable, a rare and major surprise. A year ago, however, healthcare giant MSD cautioned that infectious disease outbreaks with potentially tragic consequences are a "certainty". Last September, "World at risk from deadly pandemics" was the headline of a World Health Organisation press release. Infectious diseases were cited as one of the top risks for 2020 in the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report.

As author and policy analyst Michele Wucker points out, we don't know the specifics regarding pandemics but we know they will happen. The coronavirus outbreak is no black swan. It's an example of what Wucker terms a "grey rhino": something that's "visible, coming right at you, with large potential impact and highly probable consequences".

Claims that “nobody could have seen it coming” are, says Wucker, “pish posh”.