Homeowners and businesses face interest rate rises this year if the uncertainty sparked by the US-Israel conflict with Iran persists, a leading property industry figure predicted on Tuesday.
The European Central Bank (ECB), which sets euro zone borrowing charges, is closely monitoring rising energy prices and other challenges posed by the war, said Marian Finnegan, managing director, residential & advisory, with estate agents, Sherry FitzGerald.
The ECB says “corrective movements will occur” if conflict-driven inflation continues, which means the bank could increase interest rates, indicating a potential rise in the cost of borrowing here, according to Finnegan, who is an economist.
She estimated that the ECB could impose two increases of 25 basis points each this year, a total hike of 0.5 per cent.
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“That is based on everybody’s assessment, they have not said that they are going to give us two increases,” Finnegan added.
She was speaking after participating in the Irish Home Builders’ Association (IHBA) annual conference in Croke Park, Dublin, where she warned of the risk that borrowing charges could increase in coming months.
Uncertainty over interest rates could slow decisions on investing in home building here, particularly among international backers interested in funding apartments and rental accommodation, Finnegan cautioned.
However, interest rate rises across the euro zone would leave the Republic “no worse off” that other EU members competing for the same investment, she added.
Certainty about efforts to end the conflict, along with falls in energy prices, would make interest rate increases less likely, Finnegan explained.
Has the fuel protest shown that the loudest lobby generally gets what they want?
“But there has to be some engagement between the sides, we would really need to see some traction.”
Reports on Tuesday said US president Donald Trump was not interested in extending the ceasefire with Iran beyond Wednesday.
The IHBA conference heard that some forecasts predict that builders could complete up to 43,000 new homes in the Republic this year.
Work began on 8,400 homes in the first three months of this year, more than double the rate during the same period in 2025, Sherry FitzGerald said this week.
Forecasts for the final number this year range between 37,000 and 43,000, according to Caroline Timmons, assistant secretary, Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage.
While the department does not make forecasts, Timmons noted other organisations foresaw momentum in house building.
She said that AIB told the department last week that the figure “was heading for 39,000″.
“Some of the other forecasts are maybe 43,000,” Timmons added.
