Main Points
- First count: Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas topped the poll in Galway West with 10,007 votes
- After the fourth count, Thomas had a 784 vote advantage over his nearest challenger Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne but both men are well short of the quota
- Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan secured 3,208 first preferences with leader Mary Lou McDonald saying it has not been Sinn Féin’s day
- Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the “platform is here for Fianna Fáil to grow” in Galway West as the party’s pair of candidates finished well off the pace in both constituencies
- Click for live coverage of the Dublin Central byelection count
Key Pieces
- Galway West byelection results in full
- Pat Leahy: Social Democrats set for comfortable win leaving Sinn Féin with hard questions
- Inside Politics podcast: Ennis and Kyne in poll position on bad day for big parties
That’s a wrap for tonight and thank you for tuning in. We’ll be back here again in the morning covering every twist and turn in the Galway West byelection.
Galway West count to resume in the morning
The Galway West count is now finished for the night and will resume at 9am in the morning.
Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas had a 784 vote advantage over his nearest challenger Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne, but both men are well short of the quota.
The fourth count involved the elimination of the Green Party’s Niall Murphy and Kyne closed the gap to 590. Kyne received 214 transfers from Murphy.
Ogbu received almost 400 votes to bring her total to almost 6,000.
It will be an interesting day on Sunday. There are three left wing candidates, Sheila Garrity, Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan and the Social Democrats Míde Nic Fionnlaoich to be eliminated which should boost the Labour Party’s Helen Ogbu though unlikely to be enough to get her elected.
The popular independent Mike Cubbard’s transfers may also favour his fellow city councillor Ogbu.
The critical transfers are likely to be those of Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane.
If his votes go, as expected, heavily to Seán Kyne, Fine Gael will win the seat, but Thomas is ex-Fianna Fáil so there is an unknown factor.
Big transfers put Thomas in poll position
Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas did best from the distribution of the Irish People’s Party candidate AJ Cahill’s 949 votes. He garnered almost half of them, adding 439 votes to bring his total to 10,477. By contrast Seán Kyne received just 20 transfers from Cahill bringing his total to 9,693. The gap between them is now 784.
Fine Gael had not calculated that the transfer would be so large but Cahill’s platform has been about immigration, and Thomas has been identified with that issue.
The Green Party’s Niall Murphy has now been eliminated.
Fine Gael is a little nervous but still believe their candidate will prevail.
Will Galway West prove the mantra ‘vote left, transfer left’?
Andrew Hamilton
The next few counts in Galway West will decide the legacy of Catherine Connolly’s ‘vote left, transfer left’ presidential campaign, according to one of the leaders of that movement.
Sheila Garrity, who received 1,421 first preference votes in the Galway West byelection, was President Connolly’s Galway convener during last year’s presidential election.
She has also been one of the central voices in the coming together of the left in Galway in recent months and a member of the Tonn Na Clé grassroots movement.
“The real take-away for me over the next couple of counts is to see how we are going to coalesce on the left,” she said.
Currently Labour’s Cllr Helen Ogbu is best placed among the left-wing candidates in Galway West polling a respectable 5,462 first preference votes, more than doubling the 1,973 votes she received in the general election.
She is a long way behind the front runner Noel Thomas who has 10,007 first preferences and his nearest challenger Seán Kyne who has 9,647, but there is likely to be a lot of left-leaning candidates eliminated who may transfer to her.
“Catherine’s legacy here could be that we coalesce more strongly than we have in past elections and we create a template for the next general election,” said Garrity.
“That was my hope coming into this campaign, that we could show a new way of doing politics in Ireland, leading out from Galway West.
“Who takes the seat is one story, the other story is how we perform on the left in terms of holding the vote and showing the potential. This is just the beginning.”
While she is currently unsure about her own future in politics, Garrity believes that her campaign has helped create a community that will have an impact in the future.
“Over the next few weeks, I will get together with the community that we have developed here. A sense of community has grown up around this group, the question is what do we do as a community?
“Is there maybe someone there who wants to step up? A lot of people have said that they have been inspired, that they feel that they can make a difference as an individual. Maybe something will come out of this.”
Count 2 has been completed in Galway West. Independent AJ Cahill has been eliminated. The Social Democrats Míde NicFhionnlaoch was the main beneficiary of the five candidates who were eliminated winning 197 of the 812 votes that were distributed.
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Second-placed Kyne could still edge out poll topper Thomas
The first count in Galway West has been completed. The turnout was 44 per cent which was respectable for a byelection, writes political correspondent Harry McGee.
Only 360 votes separate the first two candidates after the first count. Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas is on 10,007 votes while Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne is on 9,647.
Transfers will decide the contest. The feeling all days has been that Sean Kyne is marginally more transfer friendly and should edge out Thomas .
Labour’s Helen Ogbu is the leading left candidate with an impressive 5,462 vote, with Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane polling 4,192. Next is Independent candidate, Mike Cubbard, at 3,396, closely followed by Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich from the Social Democrats (3,354) and Mark Lohan from Sinn Féin at 3,208.
Galway West poll topper Noel Thomas accuses Fianna Fáil of being out-of-touch
Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas says today’s byelections show that Fianna Fáil are “losing their grip all over the country”, writes Andrew Hamilton from Galway.
Cllr Thomas, who appears to be in a two-way contest with Seán Kyne (FG) in the Galway West byelection, says the party that he left in 2024 is no longer “resonating with the people”.
The Connemara councillor was speaking just as Taoiseach Micheál Martin (FF) entered the Galway West count centre after what has been a disappointing day for the party.
“Fianna Fáil have had a very poor day here today. It’s up to themselves what to do, they are going to have to find the right candidates to put forward in [future] elections,” said Thomas.
“Cillian Keane [the Fianna Fáíl candidate] is a young candidate, maybe he will gain traction in the future but they have to be disappointed with what has happened to them here today. They didn’t get much support here at all.
“It was very slack. Especially in this part of the country, with the [Éamon] Ó’Cuív arm, as they say, [in the past] they had complete control of the whole place.
“When you look at it that way, they seem to be losing their grip. As far as I am concerned, they are losing their grip all over the country because they are not resonating with the people.”
Cllr Thomas says that he faces a “long and hard battle” if he is to take the seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly.
After the first count Thomas has a slender 360 vote lead ahead Fine Gael’s Sean Kyne. But with neither candidate even halfway to a quota, there will likely be many twists and turns in the hours to come.
“We haven’t had a chance to have a good look at where the transfers are going yet. It’s a battle. All I can tell you is that it is going to be a long and hard battle,” he said.
“I’m still a bit nervous to be honest with you, it’s very close with Seán Kyne. I am long enough in politics now to know that this is going to be a game of transfers, transfers are about who has the best [name] recognition.
“Sean Kyne has got high recognition, I have very high recognition myself, that’s what this comes done to now.
“It’s going to be incredibly close, you’d be worried about it.”
Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas gets 10,000 first preferences
First count: The first count for Galway West has just concluded. Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas has topped the poll with 10,007 votes followed by Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne on 9,647 a gap of 360 with Labour’s Helen Ogbu third on 5,462.
Fianna Fáil’s candidate Cillian Keane got 4,192 votes with independent Mike Hubbard on 3,396, Social Democrats Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich on 3,354 and Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan on 3,208.
Independent candidate Thomas Welby got 3,148 votes votes, fellow independent Sheila Garrity 1,421 and the Green Party candidate Niall Murphy has 1,119.
Independent Ireland ‘proud’ of poll topper Noel Thomas
Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins has described Noel Thomas’s performance in the Galway West byelection as “astonishing”.
Tallies suggest that Thomas will increase his vote by 5,700 in the 2024 general election to around 9,500 in the byelection.
Thomas was a Fianna Fáil councillor for 10 years until 2024 when he joined Independent Ireland. He topped the poll in the local elections in June that year though he failed to win a seat in the general election.
Collins said Thomas’s performance was down to the candidate’s hard work and his persistent canvassing.
The same issues were coming up on the doorstep - the cost of living and the struggles farmers are contending with, Collins added.
“All we can say we are proud he has topped the poll, but it is going to be a long day and a long night”.
Taoiseach praises party’s Galway West candidate
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has arrived at the count centre for Galway West in Salthill. He spoke to the media and accepted the result of the Dublin Central by-election was one of the worst in Fianna Fáil political history, writes political correspondent Harry McGee.
He said it was similar to the Dublin Bay South result in 2021 where its candidate Deirdre Conroy won just 4 per cent of the vote even though there was a sitting TD in the consituency.
Asked about the performance of John Stephens he replied: “I would acknowledge we have a structural issue in Dublin Central that didn’t start today, in fact it goes back 20 years now.
“We had significant difficulties there in terms of the local elections, where we did very well around the country. We only got one candidate elected in the local elections in Dublin Central, and that was John (Stephens), and he got the last seat in a seven-seat local electoral area. Dublin Central has proved elusive for us,” he said.
Turning to Galway West he argued that its candidate Cillian Keane, who won 9 per cent of the vote did well, notwithstanding the party’s percentage vote had halved since the general election in 2024.
“Cillian is only two years a councillor and he did well. He will come fourth here in this election. He has strengthened the eastern flank for us now within the constituency (Keane lives in Oranmore to the east of Galway city).
“We have a very strong TD here in John Connolly, and we have a good councillor base here, so the platform is here for Fianna Fáil to grow.
“I’ve through a lot of byelections in the past 10 years. We’ve used them to blood people, we’ve used them as platforms for people to grow and develop.”
Harris praises Fine Gael candidates in byelections
Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris has said his party has got more first preference votes than any other in the two byelections combined.
In Galway West Seán Kyne is expected to poll around 9,000 first preference votes while Ray McAdam going 2,659 first preference votes in Dublin Central.
“I want to thank the people who have voted for Fine Gael in these byelections,” Harris said in a statement.
“In both constituencies we ran two extremely strong candidates who were grounded in their communities and whose experienced mattered to voters.
“Based on the tallies across the constituencies, more people have given their first preference vote to Fine Gael than any other political party.
“I want to thank Ray McAdam and Séan Kyne - two excellent candidates, supported by a strong team of party activists on the ground in Dublin Central and Galway West and the Fine Gael family from across the country.
“Whatever the outcome in the hours ahead, today is another reminder of why Ireland is a great country with a strong and stable democracy, and we look forward to the results.”
Martin blames ‘structural’ issues for poor showing in Dublin Central
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has just arrived at the Galway West constituency.
It has not been a good day for the party with both its candidates, Cllr Cillian Keane in Galway West and Cllr John Stephens in Dublin Central, nowhere near challenging for a seat in either constituency.
The result was particularly bad in Dublin Central where Stephens got just 1,049 first preference votes in what was Bertie Ahern’s old constituency.
Martin told reporters that there had been “structural” issues within the organisation in Dublin Central “that didn’t start today, in fact it goes back 20 years now”.
Calleary praises ‘solid performance’ of Fianna Fáil candidate
Fianna Fáil’s director of election in Galway West Dara Calleary is not accepting it has been a bad day for the party in the constituency.
Party candidate Cillian Keane is trailing badly behind front-runners Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne and Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas who is ex-Fianna Fáil and Labour’s Helen Ogbu.
He is expected to get around 9 per cent of the vote, less than half that of either Kyne or Thomas.
Calleary said Keane is a first time candidate unlike the three contenders at the top of the poll.
“The three people ahead of him have all ran in general elections before. The front runners were the runners-up in the last election,” Calleary told Mid-West Radio.
“In that context Cillian put in a very solid performance. Cillian is a first time councillor and a lot of people didn’t know him, but they have got to know him in the last six weeks.
“The people who know him best are in his home electoral area [Athenry] where he topped the poll.”
Calleary said there was “annoyance” with the Government among voters in Galway West, but he pointed out that Seán Kyne, who is a candidate for a Government party, could win the seat.
When asked if the Fianna Fáil showing in the two byelections would lead to questions again over the leadership of Taoiseach Micheál Martin, he responded: “It shouldn’t. I have been involved in many byelections and the question keeps coming up.
“What we have always shown is that we can have challenging byelections and go on to have successful general elections.
“You can’t compare a byelection to a general election.”
Galway Bay FM is predicting that it will be 5.30pm at the earliest before there is a first count in the byelection there.
The tallies suggest that Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas will be slightly ahead of Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne on the first count. Thomas has 9,512 votes, 311 ahead of Kyne.
Labour’s Helen Ogbu is in third place with 5,283 votes. None of the other candidates are in the running for the seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly.
Taoiseach expected to speak in Galway West
Taoiseach Micheál Martin is expected in the Galway West count centre at around 5pm and will speak to the media alongside candidate Cillian Keane.
From Harry McGee: It has not been a good election for Fianna Fáil.
Keane is expected to get about 9 per cent of the vote, leaving him in fourth place, but lagging well behind Sean Kyne of Fine Gael and Noel Thomas fo Independent Ireland, both of whom are over 20 per cent.
Still, it is a slightly better than expected performance from Keane, the youngest candidate in the filed, than had been predicted by the polls.
Martin will be asked about another poor electoral performance by his party, following the disastrous presidential election in late October.
There will be particular focus on the very low level of support for its candidate in Dublin Central, John Stephens.
Galway West: As it stands
The added layer of complexity in Galway West
There is an added layer of complexity in the Galway West byelection.
From Harry McGee in Salthill: By elections are so atypical. Not only do the first preference votes not fall along expected party lines, transfers can be very sporadically distributed as well.
In the normal course of event you would expect a Government candidate to struggle in subsequent counts.
In Galway West, the Independent Ireland candidate’s comments on immigration and asylum accommodation have been unappealing to voters of left-leaning parties.
The combined left vote in this election is about 30 per cent but party activists looking at transfer patterns are saying they are not breaking decisively.
The other imponderable is when the result of Galway West would be known. Those expecting a relatively early finish tonight maybe disappointed. Counting is expected to continue until tomorrow.
Listen: Ennis and Kyne in poll position on a bad day for big parties
A picture is emerging in the byelection counts. Hugh is joined on the latest Inside Politics podcast by Pat Leahy, Harry McGee and Jack Horgan-Jones to discuss what we have learned so far.
Ennis and Kyne in poll position on a bad day for big parties
Watch: Labour ‘proud’ of Ogbu campaign, says Bacik
Labour leader Ivana Bacik has said the party’s Galway West byelection candidate has had a “really strong” showing on the tallies and the party is “pleased and proud” of her campaign.
Bacik, speaking in the Galway count centre in Salthill, said the constituency has a “strong progressive left tradition” with the seat up for grabs previously being held by former president Michael D Higgins and most recently by President Catherine Connolly.
First Galway count expected around 3pm
The first count is expected around 3pm in Galway West.
Harry McGee reports: We expect four of the 17 candidates to be eliminated in the first count.
While Thomas is ahead, Kyne is expected to close the gap in succeeding counts even though on early tallies of second preferences, the Sinn Féin candidate Mark Lohan is favouring Thomas.
But then there are other candidates in the field who will transfer more heavily to the Fine Gael candidate.
The full tally for Galway West.
Labour leader Ivana Bacik and Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald at the count centre at the Lawn and Tennis Club in Salthill, Galway, on Saturday. Photograph: Chris Maddaloni
Thomas and Kyne lead in close Galway race
From Political Correspondent Harry McGee in Galway:
The Galway tally has been completed. It shows that the two leading contenders, Noel Thomas (20.5 per cent) and Seán Kyne (19.8) per cent are very close to each other. It has been a good day for Labour which has had its best result in Galway West since 2011 but a disappointing day for Sinn Féin.
Its candidate Mark Lohan has garnered only 6.5 per cent of the vote. Labour’s Helen Ogbu performed strongly in the city and seems to have captured the Catherine Connolly vote.
McDonald: ‘Pressure is for tyres’
Speaking the media in Galway, McDonald said: “I feel under no pressure whatsoever. Pressure is for tires. If you’re going to lead, if you’re going to lead the opposition ... you don’t give way to pressure.”
Not Sinn Féin’s day in Galway West, says McDonald
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has arrived at the Galway West count centre at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club.
She said the next general election would be different for the party but it has not been her party’s day in this byelection.
The left vote in Galway West is at about 30 per cent, which is down about 7 per cent from the 2024 general election, according to the votes tallied so far.
Part of that is attributable to a good showing for Independent Mike Cubbard, who has definitely taken some Connolly votes in the city, writes Political Correspondent Harry McGee.
As the tally continues it is looking poor for Sinn Féin. Mark Lohan is at about 7 per cent of the vote, according to the latest tallies, and that puts him behind Cillian Keane of Fianna Fáil.
His vote has picked up as the boxes from the rural areas east of Galway City have been counted.
The other two success stories are Helen Ogbu of the Labour Party, who is polling at about 13 per cent at present (with 60 per cent of the boxes open) and mayor of Galway Mike Cubbard, with about 9.5 per cent of the vote.
That will leave both with a clear path to a seat at the next general election. Ogbu seems to have recovered the old Michael D Higgins vote for the Labour Party, which subsequently went to Catherine Connolly.
It’s been a disappointing day for Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan, who is back in the pack. Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane is at about 8 per cent, which is very low for his party, while Míde Ní Fhionnlaoich is at about 7 per cent and could be in the conversation for the next election.
If it comes down to transfers at the heel of the hunt, the lower preferences of Cubbard and the left candidates will be crucial.
The first count in Galway West is expected at about 3pm. All 176 boxes have been opened, in addition to one box containing postal votes.
Seán Kyne of Fine Gael and Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland are within one percentage point of each other on the boxes tallied so far.
We are at about 60 per cent of a full tally. Thomas, who is not an Irish speaker, has done spectacularly well in the Gaeltacht area and has come in well ahead of Kyne and of Leitir Mór native Míde Ní Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats.
However, Kyne is polling consistently in all areas of the constituency.
Close contest between Kyne and Thomas after quarter of votes tallied
With about a quarter of the Galway West votes tallied, it’s a close contest between Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne and Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, with Kyne slightly ahead.
Thomas is expected to do well in south Connemara though, and may end up in the lead after the first count, Political Correspondent Harry McGee reports.
The extent of that lead will be crucial as Kyne is reckoned to be more transfer-friendly. Helen Ogbu of Labour is the clear front-runner on the left (but remember, many of the votes are city votes).
It will be interesting to see how well the left vote-transfer pact works and whether it brings Ogbu into the frame.
The other big story here is the really strong performances of Independent candidate and mayor of Galway Mike Cubbard, who has about 10 per cent of the vote, according to the tallies.
Again, that performance is on the back of city votes, so his total percentage might fall a little as the day progresses. Still, a very solid performance.
It’s been a poor day so far for Fianna Fáil, with its young candidate Cillian Keane on about 6 per cent of the votes. Again, the votes from his area of Oranmore have yet to be tallied but Fianna Fáil will be well back from the leading contenders.
The returning staff reckon a turnout in the mid 40s for Galway West, which is not bad for a byelection, writes Political Correspondent Harry McGee.
The turnout in the north Connemara village of Maigh Cuilinn was insanely high. Two of the leading candidates, Noel Thomas Independent Ireland) and Seán Kyne (Fine Gael), are based there while a third, Independent Thomas Welby, is farther out the road in Oughterard.
The Galway West count has been under way since 9am, with counting staff sorting through boxes from the east of the city, in Renmore, Mervue and Ballybane.
We are not expecting a first-count outcome until 6pm, according to Political Correspondent Harry McGee. There are three tallies going on.
The left parties have combined to do a joint tally while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are doing their own.
Early tallies show Labour’s Helen Ogbu doing very well but this, of course, is her area. The other candidates showing up strongly are Seán Kyne of Fine Gael and Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, who has done very well in the Mervue boxes.
The Social Democrats candidate Míde Ní Fhionnlaoich is not showing up as strongly but this would not be her area. Mark Lohan of Sinn Féin is doing okay but would expect to do better. At this stage Ogbu is looking to be the leading left candidate but, remember, this is her stronghold.
Ballot boxes have been opened at Galway Lawn Tennis Club in Salthill, with counting now under way.
There are 17 candidates in Galway West to succeed former Independent TD and now President Catherine Connolly.
The two perceived front-runners – Senator and former TD Seán Kyne of Fine Gael and Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas – campaigned on opposite ends of the constituency: the Wild Atlantic Way and Oranmore, respectively.
Fine Gael winning the seat would buck the trend of Government parties faring poorly in byelections.
It is more than two weeks since The Irish Times/TG4 Ipsos B&A poll that had Kyne in the lead, followed by Thomas, with Labour councillor Helen Ogbu leading the pack of left-wing candidates ahead of Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan.
On the evidence of the recent opinion polls, Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane appears to be faring better than his party colleague John Stephens in Dublin Central, but both face an uphill battle. Independents in the race in Galway West include mayor of Galway Mike Cubbard.
Good morning – it’s count day in Galway West and Dublin Central.
Out west, the final estimated turnout when polls closed was approximately 44.28 per cent, compared with 52.27 per cent in the 2024 general election.
Voter turnout had risen to 59 per cent in Moycullen but was at its lowest ad 36 per cent in Renmore.
In Clifden 42 per cent of voters cast their ballot, with 50 per cent voting in Spiddal, 47 per cent in Oranmore, 46 per cent in Knocknacarra and 46 per cent in Carraroe.
Some 43 per cent of voters in Claregalway cast their ballot and 39 per cent on the Aran Islands.
