Donald Trump and his will he/won’t he threats on Greenland have held the media spotlight for most of this month. That’s precisely as someone who sees himself as a “media personality” would like.
But, after all the column inches and broadcast hours spent analysing the thinking behind Trump’s pursuit of Denmark’s frozen island, his motivations for it and the potential fallout, perhaps now is the time for some straight speaking. In the US president’s mind, this seems no more than a simple, sensible commercial transaction.
He might as well be on The Apprentice. It is the art of the deal only, in his current position, he holds a bigger stick.
Trump has no real interest in Greenland as a vital cog in his Arctic defence project. The US knows that neither Russia nor China will invade the island – and even if either did, there would be far more cover within Nato than there would be standing alone, having alienated its military allies.
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What interests Trump can only be the potential beneath the surface – the rare earth minerals that are an essential raw material for a modern high-tech economy – vital for everything from electric vehicles to smartphones and wind turbines to weapons systems.
The US is a big producer of rare earth elements, but it is in the ha’penny place next to China, especially when it comes to reserves, and demand in its economy is, if anything, higher.
Greenland is believed to have reserves that could amount to 20 times those of mainland USA. And while a physical invasion is most unlikely, China and/or Russia might well look to strike deals with a Greenland government over access to such deposits.
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A transactional president, more than anything, insofar as there is a theme to his administration, Trump is acutely aware of the potential value to the US economy, and possibly even to himself, of control over the resources in Greenland.
Rare earths have also been a focus for Trump in his negotiations over Ukraine, where access to mining rights has been side-by-side with the pursuit of peace and division of land in terms of his priorities.
And in Venezuela, where pursuing drug gangs was never reason enough to justify the physical and financial resources required to invade and control the country, valuable mineral deposits sit alongside rare earth deposits and, of course, oil.
With Trump, everything always comes down to money and opportunity.
