It is the first Friday of Ramadan as men leave lunchtime prayers at Ghamkol Sharif mosque in Manchester’s Longsight area. It is a key battleground in this week’s crucial byelection in Gorton and Denton – two red-bricked, working towns east of the city.
The result could reshape the tone of Britain’s tumultuous national politics. It takes place against the backdrop of deep social tensions boiling in the country.
Heavy rains pours on to worshippers’ heads as they step outside the mosque, where they run the gauntlet of two young men handing out election leaflets. One of the canvassers is smiling, while the other looks miserable. Both are soaked to the bone.
“Thank you brother,” says the smiler as he thrusts another leaflet into passing hands.
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Muslim voters will play a key role in deciding this Thursday’s contest as Labour tries desperately to rebuff an onslaught from the turquoise battalions of Reform UK, which is eating up votes in the eastern Denton side of the constituency.
In heavily Muslim, working-class western wards such as Longsight, and gritty but increasingly trendy Levenshulme, the key fight is between Labour’s red army and upstarts the Greens. Anti-immigration Reform is peripheral here.
Most Muslims in this part of Manchester are of either Pakistani Kashmiri or Bangladeshi descent, born of those who originally immigrated to work in the city’s textiles trade.
Most local businesses are British-Asian owned – longer-established Kashmiris have a slight edge among the little restaurants and shops on vibrant thoroughfares such as Stockport Road, while Bangladeshis own many outlets on side streets.
Both the Kashmiri and Bangladeshi communities are angry at the Labour government over Israel’s war in Gaza. Up the road at the colourful Longsight Market, a parked van blares Islamic music as volunteers seek support for Palestinians.
Yet sources tell The Irish Times the byelection is also being shaped by local rivalries between senior Kashmiri and Bangladeshi figures, risking a split in Labour’s traditional base in the area based on ethnic loyalties, personal alliances and relationships.
“That, as much as the rise of Reform or any of the national issues, could influence the result,” said a source. “They don’t talk about it in London, but it’s known in Manchester.”
The nature of the background tensions mean Kashmiris may be less enthusiastic about Labour’s candidate, Greek-born Angeliki Stogia, than Bangladeshis, whose community leaders backed her in a tight selection contest.
Labour’s white working-class base in Denton is already under pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Now the Greens are mounting a charge among Muslims on the Gorton side. Labour is caught in a pincer in what was once a safe seat.
The party believes Stogia can hang on, but warns a split left-wing vote risks letting Reform’s candidate, self-assured GB News presenter Matt Goodwin, steal through the middle. That would buttress Farage’s claim to have a government-in-waiting.
Meanwhile, the Greens insist their candidate, local plumber Hannah Spencer, has a chance of a shock win. That would spark an earthquake in Labour which would seriously undermine prime minister Keir Starmer, whose allies blocked Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from running in the byelection.
The contest seems too close to call, but the stakes could barely be higher.
Back at Ghamkol Sharif mosque, the smiling canvasser is for the Greens while the miserable one is for Labour.
“Only the Greens can win,” their party’s canvasser insists. His leaflet decries Reform’s statements on race. Goodwin, a prominent combatant in Britain’s online culture wars, has previously argued that UK-born ethnic minorities aren’t always British.
The Greens’ leaflet says it is the only party to have “spoken out on Palestine”. On a black background with white text, the red of a section slamming Labour is juxtaposed with the green of the upstart party – an obvious allusion to the colours of the Palestinian flag.
“I’m not bothered man,” says the downbeat Labour leafleteer. “I’m just here to hand these out, that’s it.”
Up at Longsight Market, Green canvassers brave rain slopping down off the stalls’ canvas roofs to hand out Ramadan Mubarak (Blessed Ramadan) cards from Spencer.
“I’ve had people come up to me today and say, ‘F**k Labour – I’m voting Green,’” says the canvasser, a young man in his early 20s from Crewe. I did not witness this happening but, if it did, it would chime with worries expressed by some local Labour sources.
The young woman canvassing at the market with him advertises her allegiance with green sparkly eye make-up. Neither are Muslims, yet all their greeting cards are distributed and later I meet them restocking at the Greens’ buzzing campaign office.
The Greens have no local councillors here, but the left-wing party – energised by its new leader, Zack Polanski – has bussed in volunteers from all over Britain.
“It’s going to be really close between us and Reform,” says Hertfordshire Green councillor Helen Heathfield, who has joined the effort. “We ran out of Ramadan cards at most mosques today.”
Outside, Greens’ deputy leader, Leeds councillor Mothin Ali, holds court. He was criticised by some in Britain for shouting “Allahu akhbar” upon his election in 2024.
Ali is driving the Green charge in Gorton with its candidate Spencer. He says she has a chance. I press him on the fact that Labour is still deeply embedded here, which might put a floor on its vote loss with Muslims who have backed it for decades.
“Blind loyalty is always a problem. But where you have that, politicians take those people for granted. If we win, we change the narrative for the whole country,” Ali says.
Touring the constituency, I notice many Labour posters hanging on the walls and windows of businesses, while Vote Greens posters (which largely do not mention Spencer at all) are predominantly in the windows of homes.
Sources say business owners like to stay close to Labour’s councillors.
Over in Denton, Goodwin’s brand-name television appeal is prominent on the blizzard of Reform posters in the area. Many locals say they are switching support from Labour to Farage’s party.
Polite but firm security officers man the entrance at Reform’s campaign office in an industrial estate near a motorway. One asks me to step off a parking spot reserved for Goodwin’s “close protection officers”, as I wait to be let inside.
The office is busy with volunteers, but lacks the giddiness of the Greens’ office. But Reform is still clearly well in the race. There have always been right-wing votes in the eastern Tameside part of Manchester, which is otherwise generally a left-wing city.
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Reform sources talk up Labour’s chances – Farage’s party needs an even split between its rivals to win through the middle.
Later, at the karaoke at the Red Lion in Denton, a local man expresses reservations about Reform. “I’d actually prefer to vote for Kemi Badenoch [the Tory leader] if only she was running – she tears strips off that Starmer,” he says.
The karaoke DJ belts out a dubious version of Snow Patrol’s Chasing Cars. It’s nearly time to leave. Some women request a song by Simply Red – its singer Mick Hucknall is Denton’s most famous son.
Can Reform or the Greens hold back the years of Labour’s local dominance?
Next day I bump into Ali again, as he is heckled by protesters on the margins of a hard right Britain First rally in central Manchester. I follow its course as scuffles break out across the city with left-wing counter protesters.
Whoever wins Thursday’s vote, Britain’s culture war problems remain.
