After Christmas, the expectation was that Keir Starmer’s position as Labour leader and UK prime minister would come under pressure in May, after Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections.
We’re not yet through January and already the pressure is on. There is little doubt now but that Starmer is scrapping for his political survival. The fight has begun.
The decision on Sunday by Labour’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) to block Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from contesting a Westminster byelection in his area is a big gamble by Starmer’s allies, who are stacked on the committee.
It will be perceived in Westminster and beyond as a flex designed to stymie a leadership rival to Starmer – Burnham is Labour’s so-called “King of the North” who has made little secret of his desire extend his dominion to all of Britain by unseating the leader.
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The risk for Starmer is that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK may now win the byelection in Gorton and Denton as one of Labour’s biggest stars is forced to sit on the sidelines. The perception may be that a defeat was self-inflicted just to save the prime minister’s skin.
Starmer’s allies argue that the risk to him of letting Burnham run was even bigger.
Burnham, a former cabinet member under Gordon Brown, won his third term as Manchester mayor last May. Unlike much of the rest of Britain, a nation stuck in a negative loop, Manchester appears to be thriving under his leadership: investment is up, the transport system is improving and its economy is the fastest-growing in the UK.
As a result, Burnham has approval ratings of which Starmer could only dream. Burnham is more popular than his party in polls, which show he is preferred over Starmer by Labour members. However, he divides opinion among Labour MPs in Westminster.
Burnham has taken a series of thinly-veiled potshots at Starmer over the past year as Labour has plunged in polls. He also criticised the “incompetent, self-interested control freaks” around the prime minister – code for advisers such as Cork man Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff.
McSweeney was instrumental in helping Starmer to stack the NEC with allies. Now its subcommittee has killed Burnham’s bid for the Gorton and Denton byelection.
The byelection has arisen because of the resignation of local MP Andrew Gwynne – he had been suspended over offensive WhatsApp messages. Under Labour rules, elected mayors need express permission from the NEC to run for Westminster. Burnham asked for the go-ahead on Saturday. A 10-strong subcommittee that includes Starmer said no.
If Burnham was allowed to run, there would be a separate byelection for his mayoralty, which Reform would also try to win. Labour’s official position on Sunday was that an “unnecessary” mayoralty race would drain party resources in advance of May elections.
But inevitably it will also be perceived as a move to protect Starmer from Burnham, who cannot launch a leadership challenge unless he is an MP.
Senior Labour figures such as deputy leader Lucy Powell, London mayor Sadiq Khan, cabinet member Ed Miliband and former deputy leader Angela Rayner had all suggested that Burnham should be allowed to run.
By blocking him, Starmer’s allies have arguably made the prime minister look insecure and weak. Gorton and Denton may end up a three-way fight between Labour, Reform and the Greens, who are considering running their leader, Zack Polanski.
If either of the other two parties win, Starmer will be blamed. Given the high-profile support for Burnham from senior figures, party disunity may only grow.
Burnham might try again elsewhere – there are rumours of other potential byelections looming in the northwest, where some MPs are older and have health issues. Meanwhile, other leadership contenders are circling, such as health secretary Wes Streeting and also Rayner, who covets a comeback after her downfall last year.
There is peril for Starmer no matter which way he turns, as he fights for his political life.
