Security zones are back as a talking point in Israel.
The key strategic lesson adopted by military planners following the October 7th, 2023, Hamas surprise attack from Gaza is that Israel can no longer allow hostile militias to entrench themselves on its borders.
Inside Gaza today, a “yellow line” separates the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from the western part of the Gaza Strip. Israel insists that even after a “full” troop withdrawal, a buffer zone will be established within Gaza along the entire length of the border.
Israel seized Syrian territory following the overthrow of president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 and troops have remained there since.
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Following Hizbullah’s decision to fire rockets and launch drones at Israel last week after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the debate in Israel is not whether to set up a security zone in south Lebanon, but the scope of such a buffer.
In recent days, the IDF has called on residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Litani river as part of an effort to remove the direct threat to Israeli communities along the northern border.
More than 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern Israel to escape the cross-border fire with Hizbullah during the Gaza war but Israel is adamant there will be no evacuations this time.
[ Sally Hayden: Life in south Lebanon under Israel's 'remote occupation'Opens in new window ]
Israel aims to push Hizbullah militants to more distant positions, seven or eight kilometres from the border. “We have a problem with these missiles, and you cannot deal with this only being a mile-and-a-half inside Lebanon,” one Israeli source said.
From 1985, following the first Lebanon war, until Israel’s withdrawal in 2000, the IDF maintained a security zone in southern Lebanon which it said was designed to protect northern communities from infiltration and cross-border attacks.
But more than 250 soldiers were killed in the security zone and roadside bombs and ambushes were a daily occurrence before then – prime minister Ehud Barak decided to pull Israeli troops back to the international border.
Despite the trauma of those years there is now a broad consensus in Israel for the need to establish a new security zone. Residents of the north say the Lebanese authorities cannot be trusted to keep the border quiet.
After the most recent ceasefire agreement in November 2024, Israel maintained five military outposts in southern Lebanon and last week created more.
It is likely that even after the Iran war ends, the IDF will remain in south Lebanon until Israel considers the northern border safe. An end to the Iran war could trigger Israel to extend its operations in south Lebanon, commit extra troops and possibly operate in Hizbullah strongholds further north, such as the Bekaa valley.
