Iran has announced the Strait of Hormuz to be “completely open” for the duration of a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon.
US president Donald Trump has announced the vital trade artery to be “open and ready for business”, nevertheless stating that the US blockade preventing Iranian vessels from leaving will continue.
The closure of the strait has caused fuel and commodities prices to spike around the world, causing political instability and economic upheaval with enormous public pressure for the situation to be resolved. That makes it Iran’s main point of leverage in negotiations with the US that have yet to achieve a permanent solution.
So is the global fuel crisis really over now? Here are key unanswered questions that suggest there may be no quick return to the pre-war status quo.
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How open is it really?
The Iranian definition of “completely open” may still mean much less traffic than before the war.
Iran never declared the strait to be officially closed, even as traffic slowed to a trickle, with Tehran selectively granting permission to vessels according to whether they belonged to friendly or unfriendly countries.
In normal times 20 per cent of the world’s oil supplies transit through the strait, along with other vital raw materials, with about 130 vessels passing the strait each day.
In contrast on Wednesday, Iran allowed two ships to enter and six to leave, while the US blocked 10 Iranian ships from leaving according to European officials.
As foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the strait to be open, he specified that ships can only pass through a narrow “co-ordinated route” within the passage determined by Iranian officials.
This would suggest that each ship will need to co-ordinate their passage with Iranian authorities one by one. It would likely be logistically difficult for 130 ships to all secure permission and navigate through this tight channel each day.
In addition, there is a reason why “turning around an oil tanker” is used as a metaphor for things that take time. Whatever happens, the flow of ships will not instantly return.
Will Iran charge tolls for safe passage?
Iran has previously demanded a right to collect tolls as a precondition to ending the war. Whether it still intends to impose them, and how much they might be, is currently unclear, though the figure of $2 million a ship has been widely reported.
At one point, Trump even suggested the US could go along with the plan for part of the revenue.
There are widespread international concerns about the affect this could have on global trade. Opposing any tolls was declared as a primary aim of a meeting convened in Paris by French president Emmanuel Macron in Friday, which brought together 49 countries in support of building an international Coalition to restore the pre-war status quo.
The idea of charging tolls has been described as against international law, but it is unclear how this can be enforced.
Is the strait mined?
Iran has not disclosed whether it has laid mines in the strait, but it is known to have the weapons in its arsenal. They are cheap to lay, but very difficult to remove.
On Friday, Trump suggested there were sea mines in the strait in a social media post, saying that the US and Iran would both work to remove them.
In general, western officials have avoided confirming any presence of mines, even while actively planning demining operations for after the war.
The reason is that even the suspicion of a mine can be enough to dissuade shipping companies and wreak havoc on insurance.
Until there is certainty that there are no mines in the Strait of Hormuz, it can be assumed that voyages will be more expensive and difficult than they were before.
