Iran’s government has no intention of surrendering to the US and Israel to end the three-week war which has killed its top leaders, eliminated its ability to produce ballistic missiles, flattened army bases, and halted the export of oil and liquefied gas.
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that Israel will continue to destroy Iran’s military capabilities. He said Iran “is weaker than ever” while Israel is a regional power “and some would say a world power”.
Netanyahu argued Israel has prepared the way for the Iranian people to effect regime change but did not offer ground troops to help with this mission. As the US is also unwilling to commit troops to a ground offensive, regime change is unlikely. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains united and loyal to the regime and there is no unified opposition to assume governance.
As long as hostilities continue, protection will have to be provided to ships trapped in the Gulf and ships outside seeking to collect oil and gas or offload goods.
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Saudi Arabia accounts for 37.2 per cent of the oil trade through Hormuz, Iraq 23 per cent, the United Arab Emirates 13 per cent, Iran 10.6 per cent, Kuwait 10.1 per cent, Qatar 4.4 per cent and others 1.9 per cent.
As none of these countries are ready to commit armed naval escorts, this effort will have to be assumed by the US.
Japan, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy have said they would join once there is a ceasefire.
Europe has been reluctant to become involved as only 4 per cent of oil it consumes transits Hormuz. The Strait handles 40 per cent of China’s seaborne oil imports and 40-60 per cent of India’s imports.
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Before the war, an average of 138 ships passed through the Strait each day, according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre. Only 99 have transited since the war began on February 28th, one-third of which were Iranian-flagged. These ships have hugged the coast rather than sailing through the shipping channel.
US military planners have told the Financial Times the time is not ripe for thin-hulled US ships to attempt to pass through Hormuz. They are at risk from underwater mines as well as aerial drones and missiles.
When commanders believe the risk is tolerable, the US could begin to deploy destroyers to accompany convoys of between two and four oil tankers. A minesweeper would lead each voyage. The total number of destroyers assigned to this effort could range from eight to 16.
US and Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,400 people in Iran and 1,000 in Lebanon while there have been scores of fatalities in neighbouring countries. About 20 Israelis have been killed and 3,000 wounded; 13 US servicemen have been killed and 200 wounded.
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