The world on the brink of 2026 seems an especially unpredictable and unsettling place.
Nonetheless, our team of crystal-ball gazers in The Irish Times have weighed in on what they think will happen in global affairs over the coming 12 months.
Will they be right? We’ll find out next year. If you think you can do better than the experts, try submitting your predictions online – at the end of this article – and we’ll compare notes in 12 months, with a prize for our top performer. Happy 2026!
– Carl O’Brien, Foreign Editor
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Will Ukraine sign up to a peace plan?
Yes. Though what form it will take is not clear, and whether it will hold is another matter.
US president Donald Trump claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day, and is impatient over the continued absence of a peace agreement.
Kyiv feels like it is now only one Trump tantrum away from losing US support entirely – including the military aid and intelligence that are a vital part of its war effort.
Europe could fill many, if not all the holes, that an end to US support would leave, but Ukraine sees that Europe is divided and desperate to avoid confrontation with Trump.
Add in Russia’s slow but relentless advance on the eastern battlefield, and Ukraine is more likely than not to have to agree to some sort of peace plan in 2026. Daniel McLaughlin, Eastern Europe Correspondent
Will global greenhouse gases finally begin to fall in 2026?
No. There are signs that carbon emissions are peaking but the expectation is they will plateau for at least a few years before slowly reducing.
Much depends on China, which is on the cusp of cutting its emissions.
But rising emissions elsewhere – the United States, India and Russia – would negate any early progress Beijing can orchestrate.
Renewable energy is increasing but energy demand is growing as fast as renewables can expand, if not faster.
Rapid growth in AI, increased air conditioning and refrigeration to counteract rising heat, the swelling world population and an expanding global middle class with an appetite for cars and consumer goods all require extra energy and fossil fuels are growing to supply it.
If wildfires are as severe in the next 12 months as they have been in the past few years, they will also cancel out the efforts of countries that are actually reducing emissions. Caroline O’Doherty, Climate and Science Correspondent
Will Keir Starmer survive as prime minister?
No. It is a marginal call and some Labour MPs believe he might scrape through, but I do not expect Starmer to be able to stand up in the political winds that will blow in 2026.
Wales is a write-off for Labour and its 100-year grip on politics there will likely end in devolved parliament elections in May. Labour is also on course to lose in Scotland. But it could be London that finally does Starmer in.
London council elections are due on the same day as the Welsh/Scottish votes. If the resurgent Greens eat into Labour’s London vote from the left, and Reform UK erodes it from the right, Starmer may be caught in an unsurvivable pincer grip. He will take the blame for everything.
Starmer has been written off before and survived. But it would be a big surprise is he made it past the summer. Mark Paul, London Correspondent
Will Beijing invade Taiwan in 2026?
No. A row over Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s suggestion that her country could go to war to defend Taiwan has heightened tensions over the self-governing island.
Beijing’s policy is to pursue unification, by force if necessary, and some analysts believe that Xi Jinping has been amping up the rhetoric to prepare the Chinese people for military action. Others think that Donald Trump would not send US forces to defend Taiwan, offering a Beijing a once in a lifetime opportunity to launch an invasion.
But the island’s topography is such that an amphibious landing would be the most ambitious such operation in military history. And although the People’s Liberation Army is armed with the most advanced weapons technology, they have not been involved in a hot war since the 1970s.
More likely are grey zone operations that make life difficult for the island but fall short of a blockade, which would be an act of war. Although polls show an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese oppose unification with the Chinese mainland, parties that want warmer relations with Beijing are gaining popularity. Denis Staunton, China Correspondent
Will England win the world cup?
No. God, no. This is not merely a sporting endeavour for the land of hope and glory. It is about identity, esteem, obsession and neurosis. It means so much to the English, I believe – nay, as a facetious Irishman, hope – they will bottle it.
The quest for a second World Cup 60 years after their first (and a mere aeon since they started talking about it) consumes the English like a case of national dysentery. That they go to the 2026 world cup with their hopes pinned on a German, England manager Thomas Tuchel, makes it worse.
If England does win, nothing else will matter. Planets may collide, the seas may rise and a cow might jump over the moon. Keir Starmer could even survive as prime minister. The English won’t care – they will dance in the fountains of Trafalgar Square. It cannot be. Mark Paul, London Correspondent
Will the US invade Venezuela in 2026?
No. The US military build-up off Venezuela is formidable but nowhere near enough for an invasion.
The current force is just one tenth the size of that which invaded Iraq in 2003 over land from Washington’s willing client Kuwait. A sea and air invasion of the much larger Venezuela would demand far more military assets than the war-averse president Trump is likely to sanction.
The goal instead looks to be to try to force Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro into fleeing or provoke a coup against him from within his Chavista movement. Trump might also be attracted by the option of an opportunistic air strike.
That risk-reward ratio would likely appeal far more to Trump than undertaking his country’s first invasion of a South American state. Tom Hennigan
Will the tech bubble pop in 2026?
Yes. This year United States financial markets continued a years-long rally, shrugging off the disruption of the Trump administration’s tariffs and broader global uncertainty.
The benchmark S&P index of US stocks has hit a record high, part of a years-long rally that began in spring 2022. Just a handful of companies account for most of this growth: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. Together, they account for about a third of the S&P’s total value and a huge proportion of trading is just in the shares of those seven companies.
Much of the rally is fuelled by hopes about the economic promise of AI. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested in computing power and data centres to enable AI, which is hugely energy-hungry, but the expected revenues have largely failed to materialise. I’m convinced that the market for an over-hyped technology is not sustainable or resilient to the shocks of a more dangerous world, and is over-concentrated in just a few companies and centred around an over-hyped technology. Expecting the US stock market as a whole to always end up higher in the long run is based on a century of growth in which the US became the dominant global power and the living standards of its citizens were transformed. I’m not convinced the same can be expected of the next century. Naomi O’Leary
Will Donald Trump be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
No. It’s not impossible, but his chances are dimming. Much has happened since María Corina Machado, this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner and the opposition leader in Venezuela, said in October that she is “grateful” for president Trump’s international diplomacy efforts.
A fragile peace process continues to hold in Gaza. Against that, the US administration’s attempts to pressure Ukraine into an abomination of a peace deal with Russia and Trump’s continued emboldening of Vladimir Putin are facilitating the sense of threat sweeping through Europe.
The Nobel chair said Machado was recognised for her struggle to “achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy”. Trump’s political opponents within the US habitually present his administration as a threat to the tenets of democracy there, and the global disapproval of the peace prize awarded by Fifa president Gianni Infantino may dissuade the Nobel committee from entertaining his claims to the prize.
But the Nobel Peace Prize honour roll is flawed and contentious and Trump will start 2026 as the bookies’ favourite. Keith Duggan, Washington Correspondent
Will Chinese cars outsell any of the German car giants?
Yes. Germany’s car industry admits it missed the early turn-off to electric mobility. In 2022, VW, BMW and Mercedes looked on in horror as Elon Musk planted his first European factory just outside the gates of Berlin.
But Germany’s car industry is not worried about Tesla any more. Instead, its eyes are fixed on a far more serious rival from the east.
Chinese car giant BYD has its roots in batteries but now the auto division of Build Your Dreams is the stuff of nightmares for German car executives.
After creeping into position in recent years, quietly attracting a loyal and price-conscious customer base in Europe, the Chinese company will move into high gear in October 2027.
Its new factory in Hungary, with an initial capacity of 150,000 vehicles annually, will allow the Chinese firm circumvent EU tariffs on Chinese cars. Brussels describes the levies as a response to unfair state subsidies for its car companies.
Not a moment too soon, VW will present its own entry-level EV next year, manufactured in Spain and starting at €25,000. If Germany’s car industry is to have a future, and the German economy with it, then this is the make-or-break moment. Derek Scally, Berlin Correspondent
Will Donald Trump’s Gaza peace deal hold during 2026?
Yes – but only just. The US president is determined to begin phase two of the ceasefire in the new year but the challenges are immense, and 53 per cent of Israelis believe the war against Hamas will restart in 2026. Israeli forces remain in control of just over half of Gaza, along a “temporary” yellow line, which Israel’s top general termed a “new border” that would serve as a “forward defensive line for our communities”.
There has been almost no discernible progress on any of the key elements of phase two of the ceasefire: Hamas remains dominant, albeit weakened, resisting calls to disarm; the militant group has still to return the body of the last remaining hostage; recruiting an international stabilisation force is problematic; Israel rejects any role for Turkey.
In addition, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has still to carry out reforms; Israel rejects a role for the PA; and donors are reluctant to commit with so much uncertainty. Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Will Democrats win back a House majority in the midterms?
Yes. As the year ends, Donald Trump’s presidential approval rating has tanked and the inflation crisis that dogged the Biden/Harris election campaign is now swamping the current administration, while Maga discontent is simmering over the administration’s handling of the Epstein files.
The recent special elections in Virginia and New Jersey hinted at voting patterns in next year’s midterms. Internal tensions, symbolised by the disaffection of Marjorie Taylor Greene, the refusal by the Indiana state senate to accede to redistricting requests, and December’s candid Vanity Fair interview by White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, all hint at an administration fragmenting.
But Republican efforts to manipulate the election process through a March executive order (blocked by the courts) to produce passports in order to vote, the continuing redistricting efforts, and fears that federal troops will be used in an attempt to deter voter turnout clouds all reasonable forecasts.
The general consensus is that the number of winnable “Republican” seats is much smaller in 2026 than it was in the Democratic blue wave of 2018, and that gerrymandering on both sides has reduced the number of competitive districts. But nonetheless, the Democrats should retake the House majority. Keith Duggan, Washington Correspondent
Will the Pope condemn Donald Trump’s US administration?
Yes. An irony – no doubt not lost on the newly-Catholic US vice-president JD Vance – is that the leader of his church (and an American), Pope Leo XIV, is increasingly seen as the world leader who is most outspoken and consistent in opposition to the policies of the Trump administration. This is likely to be even more the case in 2026.
While other heads of state, prime ministers and dictators bow before Trump, fearing his deployment of tariffs, arms or the US Navy, Leo has done the opposite.
From the beginning of his papacy, he has publicly criticised Trump’s treatment of migrants, his splitting with Europe, the betrayal of Ukraine, his threats to Venezuela, not to mention the US-enabled “barbarity” in Gaza.
Asked about this in early December, Trump commented: “I’m sure he’s a lovely man. His brother’s [Louis] a lovely man ... Do you know his brother is serious Maga?”
The US president, however, is likely to find he is dealing with a very different kettle of fish in “brother” Leo XIV. Patsy McGarry
Will the EU’s tariff deal struck with Donald Trump hold up?
Yes. Although you will probably hear a lot of bluster from the Trump administration in 2026 about how the European Union’s regulations on big tech are unfair, it is unlikely this pushback will threaten the deal Brussels and Washington struck on tariffs.
The EU agreed to 15 per cent tariffs on future goods sold into the US. EU negotiators blinked first, meaning we won’t know if Trump would have followed through on threats to hit Europe with cripplingly high import taxes, sparking a proper transatlantic trade war. Trump was able to sell the deal as a win for his radical tariff agenda. He seems content to bank it, even though his tariffs have put domestic prices and farmers under pressure.
European politicians have been desperate to keep Trump onside as an ally of Ukraine, meaning they certainly won’t be the ones to rip up the tariff deal. Jack Power, Europe Correspondent
Can you can do better than the experts?
Email us your “yes or no” predictions at foreigndesk@irishtimes.com
