Despite the military achievements of the US and Israeli air forces, guided by (for the most part) precise intelligence, Iran does not look like a country on the verge of surrender, and regime change seems fanciful.
The Islamic Republic knows it cannot overcome the military might of the US and Israel and has adopted a strategy of attrition. The regime aims to remain intact while maintaining constant projectile fire at Israel and US regional allies, even if at a level reduced since the opening days of the war.
Keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and disrupting the flow of shipping in the Gulf, making the economic cost of the war unsustainable, is a key element of this strategy as it keeps the pressure on US president Donald Trump to seek an early end to the conflict.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has said Tehran will not allow “a single litre of oil” through the vital waterway until the US and Israel stop their bombing campaign. At the same time Iran is continuing to target refineries and oilfields in Gulf states.
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The US and Israel “must consider the possibility they will be engaged in a long-term war of attrition that will destroy the entire American economy and the world economy”, said Ali Fadavi, adviser to the Revolutionary Guards’ commander-in-chief.
Iran looks at Ukraine as an example to emulate, given it has a significant military disadvantage and suffered great losses early on in the war with Russia but has managed to continue fighting for a prolonged period. And although Iran has already lost almost its entire navy and air force and much of its rocket array, it is a large country with strategic depth.
The initial strikes of the war, in which supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed along with many of Iran’s top military and political officials, failed to create a leadership vacuum. The regime spent much of the time since the 12-day war in June preparing for such a scenario and has decentralised decision-making structures.
The choice of the supreme leader’s son Mojtaba to replace him was the clearest indication of regime continuity and suggests there will be no change in the hardline policy that advocates no surrender despite the relentless air strikes.
Israel continues to be targeted by sophisticated Iranian cluster missiles that send a spray of high explosives on to its cities. The non-stop air-raid sirens have disrupted daily life and closed schools and workplaces.
For Iran’s theocratic rulers, victory means surviving the war and retaining power, no matter the cost to the country. As the war enters its third week, the policy of attrition seems to be working.
